Australian employment figures for December are due at 0030 GMT
Employment Change
- expected 15.0K, prior 61.6K
Unemployment Rate
- expected 5.4%, prior 5.4%
Full Time Employment Change
- prior was 41.9K
Part Time Employment Change
- prior was 19.7K
Participation Rate
- expected is 65.5%, prior was 65.5%
I posted a preview here a little earlier:
More now, this one via National Australia Bank 9bolding is mine):
Australia's longest run of job creation since 1994 is set to continue with the market expecting +15k jobs m/m in December.
- NAB sees upside risks to this given solid job advertising trends on SEEK and by our own NAB Business Survey in November and are forecasting a bumper +35k employment print.
For the unemployment rate, NAB and the market expect this to be unchanged at 5.4%.
Sample rotation also seems to favor a strong print this month with the outgoing 1/8 of the sample having a lower tendency to be employed compared to the sample as a whole (employment to population ratio 61.8% compared to total sample 62.1%). If the incoming 1/8 is more in line with the existing sample then rotation alone could potentially add 10-15k jobs in the month.
While NAB expects an unchanged unemployment rate for this month, the trend is firmly lower in 2018.
- Trend employment growth currently exceeds the level needed to keep the unemployment rate unchanged and at +22k is enough for it drop 0.1 every 2-3 months.
- The most recent employment indicators suggest it could fall below the RBA's 5% NAIRU in 2018 - Job Vacancies this week were very strong
Our view of a continuing strong labour market is part of the reason why NAB sees the RBA hiking rates twice in the second half of 2018.
