Retail sales have been lacklustre, concerns on high levels of household debt and slow wage growth are a hindrance. For the January report:

  • expected 0.4% m/m, prior -0.5% m/m

I posted a preview of this yesterday (from ANZ):

More now ... via Westpac:

  • Retail sales had a bumpy finish to 2017 with a solid recovery in Sep-Nov from weakness mid year giving way to a 0.5% decline in the Dec month. The iPhone X launch and increasingly popular 'Black Friday' sales were positives but may also have shifted the timing of sales. Alongside this monthly volatility, the quarterly data showed significant price declines for non-food categories associated with the launch of Amazon's Australian operations. Note that Amazon's Australian retail sales are in scope for the retail survey and should appear in sales estimates going forward.
  • The wider consumer backdrop was reasonably positive at the start of 2018 with sentiment posting its best Jan read since 2010. Incomes continue to be supported by strong job gains but undermined by weak wage growth. Private sector business surveys suggest retailers saw a small lift. On balance we expect Jan retail sales to show a 0.4% gain, the inclusion of Amazon sales likely to give some boost