Barclays on the UK inflation data & implications for near-term monetary policy outlook

UK inflation data was out Tuesday: UK September CPI mm 0.3% vs 0.3% exp

Barclays with their (brief) take on the data (bolding mine):

Inflation pressure remains in the pipeline.

• PPI input inflation accelerated to 8.4% y/y, unchanged since the August print revised up from a previously reported 7.6%. This corroborates with reported firming input price pressures in the latest round of PMIs, suggesting that even though near-term inflationary pressure should be contained risks are starting to tilt to the upside.
• The 3.0% y/y CPI print is firmer than the BoE central staff forecast in the August Inflation Report. It was insufficiently firm to trigger an exchange of open letters between the BoE Governor and the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Given the release was close to market expectations, it does little to change the near-term monetary policy outlook in our opinion.

We continue to expect the BoE to hike rates by 25bp at the November MPC meeting.