Bank of America / Merrill Lynch say they are watching for FX impact, but it'll be very jagged and lagged

  • Say "we are watchful for a potentially sizable FX impact"
  • There is limited external data ... estimate that undistributed accumulated foreign earnings could be roughly 40% in FX
  • Boa/ML's Risk Management Survey ... 50% of respondents reported that their overseas cash was 0-20% in USD

More:

  • Potential for corporate profit repatriation ... few details, the prospect of further action has buoyed market sentiment
  • FX impact from any repatriation flow is a very jagged and lagged one when it comes to the ultimate translation into the markets
  • There is significant opacity when it comes to the composition of money that is overseas.
  • We continue to estimate a reasonable upper bound for reinvested overseas assets is around 40% in non-USD, both from looking at previous data and our own internal surveys that focus on cash. Reasonably assuming $1tn+ of overseas cash among permanently reinvested earning could mean a flow in the $250-400bn range. Ultimately, we do think that a base case for a repatriation act would be a positive impact for the USD on net.

Bolding is mine