Expect a big move in USD/CAD
The market still isn't quite sure which way the Bank of Canada will go. The BOC's business outlook survey this week showed some worries about a slowdown but that was largely expected.
The next meeting is Oct 25 and the market is pricing in a 26% chance of a hike but that rises to 48% on December 6.
Expect a re-think no matter what the numbers are. The trend in the BOC's three core measures will be key, rather than the headline number.
On retail sales, the consensus is +0.5% m/m with a +0.3% rise ex-autos.
