Previews of the stack of data coming from the US today

All due at 8.30 am NY time (1330 GMT)

  • US January Durable Goods orders and Capex (preliminary)
  • January Wholesale Inventories (preliminary)

  • Advance goods trade balance

Due at 9am (1400 GMT )

  • Q4 House Price Index

Then at 10am (1500 GMT)

  • February Conference Board Consumer Confidence
  • February Richmond Fed manufacturing index

Previews via Nomura:

Advance goods trade balance:

  • We expect the Census Bureau's advance estimate of the goods trade balance for January to come in at a USD72.9bn deficit, following the USD72.3bn deficit in December. Based on container data at major US seaports, goods exports likely declined in January, while goods imports rose modestly.
  • Net, we expect the goods deficit to widen in January.

Durable goods orders:

Excluding volatile transportation orders, we expect a flat reading in January core durable goods orders.

  • Based on the January industrial production report we estimate the output of durable goods orders excluding transportation equipment rose only modestly by 0.1% m-o-m. Although the January issue of the ISM manufacturing survey suggests healthy manufacturing activity, the indicator of new orders moderated somewhat from December. Based on these data, we expect ex-transportation durable goods orders to essentially remain flat in the month.

For aggregate goods orders, we expect a 1.5% decline.

  • Much of this forecast is driven by our expectation for sharp reversal from the previous month's gains in civilian and defense aircraft and parts orders. While new orders of vehicle and vehicle parts likely rose decently given the increase in vehicle assemblies in January, we think the gain will not be enough to offset a forceful mean reversion in new aircraft orders.

Case-Shiller home price index:

  • Home prices increased at a 12-month rate of 6.4% in November, the fastest pace since July 2014. This gain was led by a 12.7% jump in Seattle and a 10.6% increase in Las Vegas.
  • Driven by a supply shortage, home prices have been increasing at a faster pace than income growth.
  • In the near term, a strong labor market and consumer expectations of rising interest rates appear to be driving up demand. However, higher home prices owing to the continued supply shortage will likely hurt consumer demand in the long run.

Conference Board's consumer confidence:

  • We expect Conference Board's consumer confidence index to rise further to 128.0 in February from 125.4 in January.
  • Incoming data on the labor market point to continued vigor. The labor market indicator of this survey still reflects healthy job market conditions.
  • Further, although there was a pick-up in volatility in equity and bond prices, we think the favorable assessment of the recent tax cut likely outweighed negative news about financial markets. For many consumers, the new federal withholding tax rates kicked in around late January and early February with direct effect on their after-tax income.
  • The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose strongly in February, likely driven by these new tax policies.