Draghi may use Jackson Hole event to lean against euro strength - Morgan Stanley

Author: Nick Bovell | Category: Central Banks

Morgan Stanley out with analysis on ECB President's appearance at Jackson Hold on August 24-26.

The rapidly rising euro reduces Eurozone growth and inflation outlook and ECB President Draghi may use the Jackson Hole event to signal the central bank's unease with euro's appreciation.

"Should the ECB engage in verbal intervention, it will be about winning time and not about a fundamental change in its current policy approach defined by ECB's Draghi in his speech at the Sintra Forum."

If you look at the longer-term timeframe, EURUSD is still in the bottom 1/3rd of its range since the 2008 high when it hit 1.60. At what point the ECB start jawboning the currency is tough to say, but so long as underlying inflation is moving higher they will move forward with their tightening signals.

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