There is plenty to come today; retail sales & industrial production (Japan) and PMIs (China) most notable - the PMIs may even move the forex needle, which is nice.

2145 GMT - New Zealand - Net Migration for January

  • Net migration peaked just above over 72K in July 2017, has eased very slightly since then
  • December was the highest monthly gain since the middle of last year ... indicative of resilience in migration to NZ
  • Strong net migration numbers are supportive of growth in coming months and years, but can weigh on inflation (more labour, potential weight on wages).

2350 GMT - Japan - retail sales data for January

  • For the m/m, expected is -0.6%, prior was +0.9%
  • For the y/y, expected is +2.4%, prior was +3.6%

2350 GMT - Japan - January industrial production (preliminary)

  • For the m/m, expected is -4.0%, prior was +2.9%
  • For the y/y, expected is +5.3%, prior was +4.4%

For the m/m, the drop would be the first in 4 months. While global demand appears to have remained firm yen appreciation may be a factor in the decline expected (a higher yen erodes Japanese exporter competitiveness)

I'll have more to come on this separately

0000 GMT - back to New Zealand for the ANZ Business Activity Outlook & Business Confidence for February

  • Activity Outlook, prior 15.6
  • Business Confidence, prior -37.8

The December (no survey in January) business confidence was a very poor result, trundling along at a level similar to November 2017 and, worse, around levels last seen prior to that during the GFC. Post-election blues have been cited as a key reason, but farming concerns (drought and the subsequent decline in milk volumes, for example) are also a factor. A bounce in confidence is expected in today's survey result, higher dairy prices contributing - but also activity is holding up well, which should improve the sentiment-based confidence measured.

ANZ's Business Outlook Survey is a monthly survey of around 1,500 businesses NZ-wide

0001 GMT - UK data

GfK Consumer Confidence (February)

  • expected -10, prior -9

Lloyds Business Barometer (February)

  • prior 35

BRC shop price index (February)

  • expected -0.6%, prior -0.5%

0030 GMT -Australia - Private Sector Credit for January

  • For the m/m, expected is +0.4%, prior was +0.3%
  • For the y/y, expected is +5.0%, prior was +4.8%

The financial aggregate data from Australia does not tend to be much of an immediate forex mover. But its good info and provides a split of housing, personal and business credit.

0100 GMT - China offical PMIs for February

Manufacturing

  • expected 55.1, prior 51.3

Non-manufacturing

  • expected 55.0, prior 55.3

I'll have more to come on this separately, but in brief a wee slide is expected for both (to readings still firmly in expansionary territory though). I posted on some early indications for the PMIs yesterday here ICYMI:

0110 GMT - Bank of Japan JGB purchases

  • 1-3, 3-5, 10-25, 25+ years the target in today's scheduled operation