There is plenty on the economic data calendar and also on the central bank front - BOJ and RBA feature

There is no scheduled time for the Bank of Japan announcement and statement, there never is. Expect it sometime in the 0230 GMT to 0330 GMT window. What to expect - I'll be back with more on this but I did post this earlier in the week: Goldman Sachs preview of the Bank of Japan meeting

2245GMT - New Zealand - Q2 GDP

  • expected 0.8% q/q (prior 0.5)
  • expected 2.5% y/y (prior 2.5%)

The focus in New Zealand is the election coming up on the weekend, but there is plenty of interest in this data point. Via BNZ:

  • Thursday's June quarter GDP report will have more eyes on it than usual, given it comes out two days before New Zealand's down-to-the wire General Election.
  • We expect activity to be up 0.8% in real terms.
  • This is stoked by a big recovery in primary production and exports, for an annual increase in GDP of 2.5%.
  • In terms of risk, we sense a result below 0.8% is slightly more likely than one above.
  • Having said this, our expenditure GDP measure is champing at 1.1% for the quarter. The market's median expectation is also for quarterly increase of 0.8, for 2.5% y/y. The other reference point is that in its August Monetary Policy Statement the RBNZ anticipated a 0.9% increase in Q2 GDP.
  • To be sure, our Q2 GDP expectation infers next to no growth in per capita terms. This is considering the working-age population expanded 2.4% in the year to Q2 2017 - boosted, as it has been, by record high net inward migration. However, Thursday's NZ GDP report also needs to be assessed in the context of nominal growth - which we believe will hit a cracking 8% in Q2 - reflecting the terms-of-trade related flush of commodity income starting to course through the economy. So take your pick.

2245GMT again from NZ - net migration August. Immigration has been a big driver of GDP (and house price growth) - but there's a catch (see BNZ comments on flat per capita GDP growth)

0130GMT - Reserve Bank of Australia FX transactions for August. This data is useful for assessing forex market intervention by the Bank. But there hasn't been any so its not a focus today.

0300GMT - New Zealand credit card spending for August

Later:

  • 0430GMT - Japan All Industry Activity Index for July
  • 0510GMT - Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speaks (I'll be back with more ahead of this)
  • 0630GMT - Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda post-meeting press conference