Estimated $2.2 tln for repatriation, but actual flow may be around $456 billion

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

This via Bloomberg on JPMorgan's estimate of USD available for repatriation

  • Dollar bulls may be disappointed if they're pinning their hopes on Republican proposals that could clear the way for U.S. companies to repatriate profits stashed overseas, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
  • Of the $2.2 trillion the bank estimates is available for repatriation, the actual flow back into dollars may be around $456 billion, given that much of the money is either already in the U.S. currency or is otherwise hedged or held in illiquid assets, according to analysts Daniel Hui and Niall O'Connor.
(bolding is mine)
Note the careful language used in the piece - & most importantly these are estimates, not concrete numbers.

  • "The reality of corporate repatriation is that the likely FX flow is much smaller than headlines suggest, and the historical impact from such flows shouldn't be over-read," Hui and O'Connor wrote in an Oct. 6 note.