GS have lowered their estimates for July to September growth from 2.8% to now 2.0%
- Given the potentially sizeable growth effects from Harvey - and with Irma risks now moving to center stage - we lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.8pp to +2.0%
Report from Goldman Sachs economists.
More:
- We expect this weakness to reverse over the subsequent three quarters
- More than recouping the lost output
- We are also increasing our respective quarterly growth forecasts by 0.4pp, 0.2pp and 0.4pp for Q4, Q1, and Q2, (to +2.7%, +2.5%, and +2.4%)
- We will revisit these estimates once reliable information about the toll from Irma becomes available. We stress that the overall impact of the hurricane on second-half growth is uncertain, as the negative effects are likely to be offset by an increase in business investment and construction activity once the storms have passed.
h/t to Zero Hedge (the ZH take & further detail is here)
