Welcome to non farm payroll day! Still a ways to go until the NY morning, but lets get a preview or two knocked out

This via Goldman Sachs, first the numbers they expect:

  • Headline +50K
  • Unemployment rate 4.5%
  • Average hourly earnings +0.4% m/m & +2.7% y/y

The bank cites:

  • We estimate that nonfarm payroll growth slowed to +50k in September ... consensus of +80k and the 3-month average pace of +185k
  • Our forecast reflects the widespread flooding and power outages caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which affected over 10% of the population and caused over $100bn in damages.
  • The impact on tomorrow's report is highly uncertain
  • Our base-case assumes a significant impact of -125k that partially offsets continued job growth in the rest of the country
  • We also expect the hurricanes to weigh on the household survey results

(bolding mine)