Its nonfarm payroll day in the US on Friday. Which should give us a few moments respite from talking about tariffs.

The headline is expected at 205K, prior 200k

  • Unemployment expected 4.0%, prior 4.1%
  • Average hourly earnings expected +0.2% and +2.2% y/y, prior 0.3% and 2.9% respectively
  • Participation expected and prior both 62.7

Data due at 1330 GMT

Goldman Sachs are a little above consensus:

  • We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 210k in February, 5k above consensus

GS citing:

  • warmer weather and unseasonably light snow during the survey week boosted job growth in the month
  • Labor market fundamentals also appear solid and may have improved further, given new cycle records for initial claims and Conference Board job availability

More forecasts from GS on the numbers:

  • unemployment rate 4.0%
  • 0.3% month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings
  • year-over-year rate fell a tenth to +2.8%