Its nonfarm payroll day in the US on Friday. Which should give us a few moments respite from talking about tariffs.
The headline is expected at 205K, prior 200k
- Unemployment expected 4.0%, prior 4.1%
- Average hourly earnings expected +0.2% and +2.2% y/y, prior 0.3% and 2.9% respectively
- Participation expected and prior both 62.7
Data due at 1330 GMT
Goldman Sachs are a little above consensus:
- We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 210k in February, 5k above consensus
GS citing:
- warmer weather and unseasonably light snow during the survey week boosted job growth in the month
- Labor market fundamentals also appear solid and may have improved further, given new cycle records for initial claims and Conference Board job availability
More forecasts from GS on the numbers:
- unemployment rate 4.0%
- 0.3% month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings
- year-over-year rate fell a tenth to +2.8%