I'm not sure if this is new news or what from a note via Goldman Sachs ... my response when I saw it was "Well, d'uh!"

GS in the note say:

  • They continue to believe a tax cut is slightly more likely than not
  • But their "conviction is low"
  • "there has been little progress to date"
  • "If tangible progress has not been made by October, after these fiscal deadlines have passed, tax legislation will start to look less likely, in our view"