Goldman Sachs with an assessment of how much stimulus will e rpvoided to GDP in the US as a result of tax reform law

GS estimate an addition from the tax bill of 0.3% in 2018

  • And +0.3% in 2019

Goldies increase their "GDP forecasts for 2018 and 2019 by 0.3pp and 0.2pp" on "a Q4/Q4 basis (to 2.6% and 1.7%)"

  • GS cite an "incremental easing in financial conditions and continued strong economic momentum to end the year"

Year-end 2018 unemployment rate forecast lowered by two tenths to 3.5%, "mainly reflecting a modestly higher expected pace of job growth"

  • expect the unemployment rate to bottom in this cycle at 3.3%, at the end of 2019

More:

  • With more fiscal stimulus comes larger deficits
  • We are increasing our deficit projection
  • We expect the deficit to rise to 3.7% of GDP in FY2018 and to 5% of GDP in 2019