DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach on CNBC

  • 'This is the year the Fed won', market pricing was wrong at the start of 2017
  • It's the first time in a long time the Fed has been right
  • It's clear the Fed is going to hike today
  • Dollar moves correlate with Fed action 18 months out and there is a divergence with what the Fed is saying and what's priced in
  • Volatility has been depressed by central bank policies
  • Quantitative tightening will slow markets
  • Draghi policies are unbelievable given growth
  • Warns about 'unintended consequences' from tinkering with tax code, could cause defaults in junk bond market
  • The US economy is doing better than it has in years
  • It's bad timing for government stimulus now, economy is expanding
  • Tax cut should be negative for bonds
  • Not particularly worried about a rapid rise in inflation
  • There are some signs of inflation picking up (cites the underlying inflation gauge from the NY Fed)
  • Wage inflation is the missing piece of the puzzle but there are some indications
  • 'Buy the rumor, sell the news' could be the story for tax bill
  • Hedged US yields are worse than Germany or Japan
  • The 10-year will rise to 3% but foreign buying could stop the climb
  • Says commodities might be best idea of 2018
  • Positive on TIPS
  • Sees US dollar bouncing now and then taking another leg lower. Says emerging markets will benefit
  • Says he continues to love India
  • We're close to 'silly season' in Bitcoin, some nutty stuff is happening
  • If you short Bitcoin, you're going to make money but you could lose it first
  • If I were to buy at crypto currency, it would be Bitcoin
  • I don't think cryptocurrencies are legit

Here is the NY Fed inflation gauge.