The main points from HSBC global currency strategy, summarised

  • We are more bullish than consensus on JPY
  • The USD strengthened on aspirations that have not been met. The JPY weakened on promises that have not been kept
  • Cyclical, structural and political change was targeted but not delivered under the three arrows of Abenomics. Inflation has come full-circle during this failed experiment and USD-JPY will circle lower too

Forecast:

  • We expect USD-JPY to finish the year at 100 compared to a consensus at 114