First up from US on Thursday will be PPI for January (preview here)
- That's at 1330 GMT
At the same time (1330 GMT) is the Empire State Manufacturing number for February
- and Jobless Claims
- and Philly Fed
Industrial production data for January in the US
- due at 1415 GMT
And housing market data a bit later
- 1500 GMT
Previews ... via
Barclays:
- We look for industrial production to increase 0.2% m/m in January, a moderation following the strong showing in December (0.9%).
- We expect this to be driven by a fall in mining sector production, while we also look for a softer increase in utilities production, as weather conditions stabilized in January.
- For the manufacturing sector, we look for solid 0.4% growth on the month.
Nomura:
- We expect a 0.3% m-o-m decline in industrial production in January after increasing a solid 0.9% in December 2017.
- Business survey data suggest that the manufacturing sector is on solid footing. Further, aggregate hours in the manufacturing sector excluding autos rose steadily by 0.3% in January, recovering from a decline in December.
- The rebound in aggregate hours points to a steady increase in ex-auto manufacturing output. However, incoming industry data portend a notable decline in auto assemblies in January.
- we expect a significant drag from the mining sector. EIA data indicate that crude oil and liquid gas extraction slowed in the month, suggesting that mining sector output likely fell in the month.
- after a strong weather-driven increase in December, utility output likely fell in January, acting as an additional drag on total industrial output.
Capital Economics:
We estimate that industrial production was again flattered by a weather-related rise in utilities output in January. The unusually cold weather in the Northeast resulted in a 5.6% m/m jump in utilities output in December and, with the cold snap continuing into early January, that boost was probably sustained.
- We have pencilled in a 3.0% m/m gain.
The weather won't have affected mining output, however, and the rally in crude oil prices last month points to further growth in drilling activity and oil production.
Despite the modest 0.1% m/m rise in manufacturing output in December, strong gains in prior months meant that the 3m/3m annualised growth rate still surged to a seven-year high. We doubt that growth will remain quite that strong and have pencilled in another fairly subdued 0.2% monthly rise in January.
But the strength of the survey evidence suggests that the weaker dollar and strong global demand will continue supporting robust growth in the factory sector over coming months
And, a round up from Pantheon Economics:
Jobless Claims
- We look for a modest rebound to 230K from 221K.
- The trend now seems to be below 230K.
- Consensus: 227K.
Empire State Survey
- The index should nudge back up to about 20 from 17.7, bringing it closer into line with the ISM.
- Consensus: 17.9.
Philadelphia Fed Survey
- Philly Fed is undershooting the national ISM, so we look for a modest rebound to about 26 from 22.2.
- Consensus: 21.6.
Producer Prices
- The headline PPI should jump 0.6%, boosted by energy prices, with the core up 0.2%.
- Consensus: Headline 0.4%, core 0.2%.
Industrial Production
- We think total production dropped 0.3%, depressed in part by the severe weather in the early part of the month.
- Manufacturing output likely fell by 0.1%.
NAHB Homebuilder Survey
- Rising mortgage rates likely have hit homebuilder' sentiment; we expect the NAHB index to drop to 70 from 72.
- Consensus: 72.
----
