The pound is feeling a bit of love still 1 Nov
Lots of expectation that the BOE will hike by 0.25% tomorrow and that's put a fresh bid under GBPUSD since basing at 1.3070 last Friday. It's got a few followers ( talk of 80% agreed on a move happening and that's spilled into the options market understandably.
Earlier I posted today's expiries which noted decent interest at 1.3265 and it's no coincidence ( my doubters will just have to trust me or ignore ) that our lows have been confined to 1.3266. Throw in good GBPJPY and GBPCHF demand as yen and franc weakness prevails in the wake of stronger equities/oil and it's a heady cocktail.
Currently 1.3298 after having had a look at decent offers/res around 1.3320 we have the FOMC to throw into the equation at 18.00 GMT today between expiry time and BOE tomorrow so I'll still bide my time for the moment to re-sell as I've been saying all week.
I will repeat here from my recent comments that a rate hike is factored in so risk is to the downside after initial jerk. Still wouldn't surprise me to see them wait until Dec or beyond. But at the end of the day it's essentially only a correction of the knee-jerk 0.25% cut post- Brexit so gains should be limited imho.
On the other hand if everyone starts to think it's factored in and therefore a sell we could equally see support in the dips afterward as traders/bots with old/fresh shorts take money off the table. Buy rumour/sell fact still but either way I'm expecting volatility but not massive moves in the aftermath.
