This preview - uh-oh. If you live in opposite world maybe its going to be one of the most market-moving Federal Reserve events!

This via RBC:

FOMC statement (Wed):

  • The July FOMC statement is the highlight of the week but the reality is this should be one of the more boring Fed releases in a while.
  • There should be only modest adjustments to the characterization of the economic backdrop and we expect no change to the policy language.
  • While some have speculated that the Fed could announce the start date of balance sheet run-off in this press statement, we think the committee's track record makes this highly unlikely.
  • The Fed has been loath to make potentially market-moving decisions in a non-press conference meeting.
  • Accordingly, we think the announcement comes at the September meeting when we also believe the committee will stand pat on rates (we expect the next hike in December).

But, yeah .... I reckon they are right.

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Earlier previews: