UBS, Credit Suisse, and Julius Baer anticipates that the SNB will move by Q1 2019
- UBS sees the SNB raising its deposit rate by 25 bps in the final 3 months of this year
- Credit Suisse and Julius Baer sees a similar move in Q1 2019
That's quite different from what the market is seeing, which is some time in late 2019 at the very least - as shown from a survey earlier this year. Even so, most market participants believe that the SNB will only act after the ECB does because a move earlier will threaten any recent depreciation in the swissie.
It doesn't make sense for the SNB to go at the same time or earlier than the ECB as that would risk the swissie appreciating further, and that would mean whatever they have been communicating to the market over the last two years is basically meaningless.
But then again they're capable of stuff like this, so credibility isn't something which they value all too much it seems.
Hmm, do these chaps know something we all don't?
