NAB revise RBA view: Forecast hikes in Aug and Nov 2018, 2 more in 2019

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

National Australia Bank revising their Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy outlook

From expecting 2 more cuts to now forecasting:
  • 25bp rate hike in August 2018
  • 25bp rate hike in November 2018
  • And two further in 2019
NAB citing:
Stronger employment, GDP and investment data have seen us revise our forecasts lower for unemployment, and slightly increase our forecasts for GDP growth and inflation. While we remain cautious about aspects of the economic outlook, we now believe the labour market will strengthen enough to allow the RBA to remove some of the emergency stimulus currently in place. We are pencilling in rate rises of 25bps in August and November of 2018 and a further two 25bp hikes in 2019, although the precise path will be data dependent. A cash rate of 2½% by end-19 is still well below the RBA's estimates of neutral (~3.5% nominal), suggesting monetary policy will remain supportive of the economy.

ps. as I update this news has not hit the major wires ... AUD gaining

As a further ps. CBA's view now is that the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike in December of 2018

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