This via ANZ on what is on the near term horizon for the EUR
(in summary, bolding is mine):
- Key issues facing the Italian electorate in this weekend's (4 March) elections are Rome's relationship with Brussels, immigration and the economy. Support for fiscal easing is widespread
- Before the pre-election two-week blackout on opinion polls began, it was estimated that around 35% of voters were still undecided. Election risks are not negligible
- Financial markets are trading in a way that suggests there will not be a shock anti EU/euro result. Benchmark BTP spreads vs bunds have narrowed this week
- In Germany, the result of the SPD postal vote on whether to re-enter a grand coalition with Chancellor Merkel's CDU/CSU will be announced on Sunday. It is expected that the majority of members will reluctantly back a coalition
- Downside pressure on the euro could materialise from a stronger showing for Eurosceptic parties in Italy and or a rejection a new coalition by the SPD. The corollary also holds, although the reaction is likely to be more muted
ANZ highlighting asymmetric risk for the euro this weekend coming up. Sunday will be a big day ... be sure to tune in to ForexLive during Asia on Monday. I'll be doing my best to update while hiding under the desk.
