Coming up at 0330 GMT, RBA March meeting decision and statement
- There is no change in the cash rate expected, attention will focus on changes within the statement
Earlier preview is here (NAB's):
More now, quickies (bolding mine) ...
ANZ:
- Key data since the RBA's February meeting includes employment, wages and capex.
- The RBA's outlook will be positive, but it is too early to judge progress toward the mid-point of the inflation target range.
CBA:
- The RBA is widely expected to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% at today's meeting.
- The RBA's thoughts around the trajectory for wages growth are important to monitor as wages are a key factor for the outlook for inflation. The latest wages reading was underwhelming with the slight pick up in annual wages growth driven by stronger wages in the public sector. Private sector wages growth remains weak.
Westpac:
- The RBA will almost certainly decide to hold rates unchanged at their March meeting - as they have since they last cut rates in August 2016.
- The Governor has stated that: "further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual".
- The case for patience has been reinforced by the latest price and wage updates - core inflation is only 1.6% annualised over the past half year and private wages growth is still at historic lows.
- Moreover, tighter lending standards have been helpful in containing the build-up of risk in household balance sheets.
- We continue to expect the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50% throughout 2018 and 2019.
TD Securities:
- Unanimous consensus expects rates to remain on hold for some time.
- After the plethora of communication in Feb (policy statement, Statement on Monetary Policy and the semi-annual testimony to parliament) the only new news is that wages growth continues to grind higher, at a gradual pace.
- Global outlook remains solid, as are commodity prices.
