Atlanta Fed GDP estimate for the 4Q
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 4Q GDP growth has dipped back below the 3.0% level. In the last reading, it moved to 3.3%. Today's estimate comes in at 2.8%.
In their own words:
"The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 2.8 percent on December 22, down from 3.3 percent on December 19. The forecast of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 3.1 percent to 2.9 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment fell from -0.14 percentage points to -0.40 percentage points after this morning's advance durable manufacturing release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the release of the revised underlying detail tables for the National Income and Product Accounts by the BEA this morning."
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, January 3.
There should be a GDP release from the NY Fed at around 11:15 AM ET. Last week, their estimate for GDP was up at 4% for 4Q and at 3.1% in Q1 2018.
