The current timeline sees the UK and EU aiming to have reached some form of agreement on the divorce by October

It's basically make or break for UK PM May, and Bloomberg highlights a very neat snapshot on how things may look like by the end of discussions this year.

Here are some scenarios that were highlighted:

1. The base case

An outline agreement is reached. The EU refuses to budge while UK PM May can't convince her party to make the concessions needed to remain in the single market. Northern Ireland's DUP party reluctantly accepts some areas will be affected in order to keep the border with Ireland open. Detailed trade negotiations will carry on for some time. The most likely outcome according to the article.

2. The upset

Negotiations on the trade front doesn't go well and DUP refuses to accept UK PM May's terms. Her minority government collapses and an election is called in Nov. Corbyn beats May and becomes the new PM. Emergency negotiations (since Brexit day looms nearer) sees the UK accept the EU's offer of membership to the European Economic Area.

3. The walkout

Talks break down between the UK and EU as UK PM May finds it impossible to reach a solution on trade, the divorce bill, and the Irish border. UK walks out on negotiations with the EU and a no deal Brexit is what we're heading for in March 2019.

4. The wish

Talks go smoothly and the UK manages to convince the EU to accept an offer resembling a "Canada plus, plus, plus" trade deal. UK manages to get the EU to sign a full detailed trade agreement by Brexit day and the transition goes smoothly.

Strap yourselves in, folks. We're in for a long ride this year. What are your thoughts on the matter? Quite frankly, I feel that the market has been desensitised by Brexit news over the course of two years - but hey, it's a good dose of volatility nonetheless. Scenario 3 and 4 is unlikely, but I think we'll see something like scenario 1 but the UK probably will have to take the short end of the deal and May will likely be ridiculed for having to pay so much for so little.