Three hikes versus four hikes
Markets like to keep things as simple as possible. The big, simple question in today's FOMC decision was: Will the dots signal 3 hikes this year, or 4.
The answer is three.
As a result, the US dollar is lower, stock markets are higher and front-end bond yields are lower. It doesn't get any deeper than that at the moment.
I think that risks missing the bigger picture and that the Fed added a line in the statement that said the "economic outlook has strengthened in recent months."
In the short-term, expect these moves to retrace somewhat starting about 5 minutes before Powell starts talking.
