Findings from a Reuters poll of 104 economists between 5-13 March
- Nearly 90% of respondents said they were concerned that the tariffs would lead to a global trade war
- Nearly 80% of respondents said tariffs would do more harm than good, with the rest saying it would do nothing or very little
- No respondent said that tariffs would benefit the US economy
There were also some comments by Ethan Harris, head of global economics at BofAML:
"This is not new. We have seen these trade battles back and forth in the past as well. But what is different this time is the persistence and the sense that we are only looking at the tip of the iceberg on protectionism. What is concerning also is the slippery slope risk here. There is no sign of any let up in this push for protectionism with the frequency of new proposals growing. It will be very surprising if there isn't some measured retaliation over time from major trading partners".
The poll by Reuters also asked economists on their view on the Fed this year, and here were the results:
- All respondents said the Fed will hike rates in this month's FOMC meeting
- Median response is that the Fed will hike rates three more times after March - once in each quarter - totaling to four rate hikes this year
