Coming up at 0830GMT on Thursday 17 August 2017, UK retail sales results for July
A few quick previews from banks (bolding mine):
Barclays:
- We expect retail sales to increase by 1.1% on the month and print 2.2% y/y reflecting generally weaker trends in consumption and consumer confidence despite some volatility in monthly credit card indicators.
HSBC:
- UK retail sales held up reasonably well in June, aided perhaps by better weather and lower petrol prices.
- For July, early indicators have been somewhat poor: the VISA consumer spending index was down in y-o-y terms for the third consecutive month, while the BRC index was held up only by food sales: discretionary spending was down 0.7% 3m/3m. So, we expect sales volumes to fall in July. And with some strong base effects for July 2016, this could take the y-o-y rate to a new four-year low.
ING:
- Our view for a more cautious BoE policy bias would be reinforced by a disappointing July retail sales report.
- While the second warmest June on record got UK consumers out spending at the start of summer, a range of factors, including waning confidence and less credit-card spending, suggest households are cutting back on non- essentials as the squeeze on real incomes takes effect.
