UK June retail sales data now out 20 July

  • prev 1.1% rev up from -1.2%
  • yy 2.9% vs 2.5% exp vs 0.9% prev
  • core retails ex auto fuel mm 0.9% vs 0.5% exp vs -1.5% prev rev up from -1.6%
  • yy 3.0% vs 2.5% exp vs 0.6% prev

Market caught short with the upside risk as per my preview with a bad number pre-empted.

GBPUSD rallies to test 1.3020 pivot area before dropping back to 1.3007. EURGBP dropped to 0.8834 but now 0.8846 again.

Hot June weather seems to have prompted strong sales in clothing, which has compensated for a decline in food and fuel sales for the month.

Says the ONS:

  • Compared with May 2017, the quantity bought increased by 0.6%, with non-food stores providing the main contribution.
  • Feedback from retailers suggests that warmer weather in addition to the introduction of summer clothing helped boost clothing sales.
  • Average store prices (including petrol stations) increased by 2.7% on the year following a rise of 3.2% in May 2017; the fall is a consequence of slowing fuel prices.
  • Looking at the quarterly data, the underlying trend as suggested by the three-month on three-month movement is one of growth, following a fall in quarter 1, suggesting a relatively flat first half of 2017."

Full report here

UK retail sales mm