Final numbers for the fiscal year-ended in September

  • Deficit was 3.5% of GDP compared to 3.2% in fiscal 2016
  • Sept surplus of $8B compared to $6B expected
  • Sept surplus compares to $33B last Sept
  • Spending at all-time record

The big question, is whether the deficit is going to rise or contract in the year ahead. My guess is that a tax cut is more important to Congress than the deficit, despite years of preaching fiscal discipline.