I posted earlier on Goldman Sachs NFP preview, this one now via HSBC, and their expectations are quite different

HSBC have an above consensus forecast for the headline:

  • +105,000
  • Unemployment rate steady at 4.4%.
  • Expect average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y

The bank cite:

The likely effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma on the national labour market data are difficult to predict.

  • In 2005, hundreds of thousands of people were displaced by Hurricane Katrina. Massive job losses in the region were readily apparent in the September and October 2005 employment reports.
  • In contrast, the Bureau of Labor Statistics assessed in 2012 that Hurricane Sandy did not have a substantive impact on its estimates for national employment.

Figures on weekly initial claims suggest that over 100,000 people have filed for unemployment insurance in Texas and Florida as a consequence of the recent disasters. However, the impact of the hurricanes on the September payroll data could end up being smaller, depending in part on how many of the affected persons worked or received pay for some portion of the relevant time period.