I posted the Goldman Sachs NFP preview here and a contrasting one from HSBC here
More now, brief takes on previews from:
Société Générale:
- Hurricane Harvey may have led to a decline in nonfarm payrolls in September, which would mark the first negative reading in seven years.
- Quantifying the hurricane's impact on job growth is fraught with uncertainty, but we suspect that Harvey's impact was similar to the drag on payrolls seen in the wake of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Barclays:
- +75k headline forecast
- Private payrolls +70k
- Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m &2.6% y/y
- Average weekly hours remain unchanged at 34.4
- Unchanged unemployment rate at 4.4%.
- Informing our view are initial and continuing jobless claims, which have risen following the landfall of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Offsetting this to some degree are other factors like part-time employment for economic reasons and the employment diffusion index, which have shown improvement in recent months.
Deutsche Bank:
- +50k headline
- +50k private
- Unemployment rate steady at 4.4%
- In fact, the "weather workers" series within the Household survey should provide a reasonable sense of the magnitude of the hurricane related disruptions to the payroll data
