Latest poll by Reuters on 11-19 January, of more than 100 economists

  • December poll says 2018 GDP growth to average 2.4%
  • US GDP growth to average 2.2% in 2019
  • December poll says 2019 GDP growth to average 2.1%
  • 59/76 economists predicted benefits from tax cut plan will start to boost US GDP this year
  • Fed to raise rates 3 times in 2018 (same as Dec poll)
  • US core PCE inflation to hit 2% in Q4 2018
  • December poll says core PCE inflation to only hit 2% in Q2 2019

Most of the economists polled say that the impact of the tax cuts will not last long, with growth expected to slow in the next year.

The poll also mentions that economists see the risks to the Fed as an upside one, where there could be a faster pace of rate hikes this year - more than the three that they are expecting.