Westpac's leading index for September data was earlir
More now:
- The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slipped from -0.16% in August -0.21% in September.
- The growth rate remains negative pointing to below trend momentum and a sharp turnaround from strong positive, above trend reads at the start of the year.
- Constraints on growth next year are likely to centre on a lack lustre consumer who struggles under the weight of weak wages growth; high energy prices and excessive leverage.
- Conditions in housing markets, particularly in the eastern states, are likely to soften while the residential construction boom will turn down.
- We are also less euphoric about growth prospects for our major trading partners than seems to be the current consensus. We expect China's growth rate to slow from 6.7% to 6.2% as the authorities step up policies to slow its long running credit boom.
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Westpac have been on the more cautious side for many months, and that continues. WAPC expect the RBA on hold all through 2018.
