What's priced in for the Federal Reserve for the remainder of the year
The market sees less than a 50% chance of a hike
The Federal Reserve probably won't hike rates again this year. That's what the market continues to say despite a hawkish message from Janet Yellen last week and an optimistic tone from NY Fed President Bill Dudley today.
The market is almost sure the Fed will remain sidelined at the next meeting -- on July 26. After that the intrigue begins.
The chance of a hike on September 20 is at 21.4% and that rises to 43.5% by year-end. Conversely, that implies a 56.5% chance that low inflation and slow growth will ensure the Fed stays sidelined.
The market will look to a full slate of Fed speakers for some clarity this week but the market probably won't have more clarity until a couple more rounds of economic data roll in.