Slightly weaker than median forecasts +0.5%, +4.1% y/y.
Slightly weaker than median forecasts +0.5%, +4.1% y/y.
GERMANY DATA: Overall economic activity in Germany slowed in fourth
quarter of 2010 to +0.4% q/q, resulting in an annual change of +4.0% in
workday adjusted terms, preliminary estimates out of the Federal
Statistical Office reported on Friday.
– Germany 4Q real GDP SA Q/Q below MNI med. forecast (+0.5%)
– Germany 4Q non-seasonally adjusted GDP +4.0% Y/Y
– Germany 3Q GDP real SA unrev +0.7% Q/Q; WDA unrev +3.9% Y/Y
– Please see MNI MainWire for details
Weaker than median forecast of +0.6%. Q3 unrevised at +0.3%.
EUR/USD up at 1.3517 from a North American close Monday down around 1.3485.
Euro zone data due today:
Greek Q4 GDP expected -1.5% q/q, -4.9% y/y
06:30 GMT: French Q4 GDP expected +0.6% y/y, +1.7% y/y
07:00 GMT: German Q4 GDP expected +0.5% q/q, +4.1% y/y
09:00 GMT: Italian Q4 GDP expected +0.2% q/q, +1.4% y/y
10:00 GMT: Euro zone Q4 GDP expected +0.4% q/q, +2.1% y/y
10:00 GMT: ZEW German economic sentiment for February expected 20 from previous 15.4; Euro zone 28.5 from 25.4
10:00 GMT: Euro zone trade s.a -0.2 bln
10:00 GMT: Italian trade for December expected -2.83 bln.
EUR/USD sell orders clustered 1.3545/55, stops thru 1.3565.
EUR/JPY has moved up to a new session high of 112.84 late in the session as some fresh flows hit the market. Dealers say that stops were also triggered above 112.80. Next technical resistance is at 113.20.
Fairly quiet session all round with the USD losing a small piece of ground but holding steady against the JPY.
EUR/USD had weakened overnight on talk that the German bank West LB might again be in some strife but these fears lessened and were pretty much abated by the time Asia stepped in. We have seen a slow continuation of the rally which started at 1.3430 in NY with the pair trading to 1.3528 after closing in NY at 1.3485. Ranges: 1.3478/1.3528, EUR/CHF 1.3078/1.3104
The AUD/USD had some significant risk events today starting with the RBA minutes (which were as expected) and also the Chinese CPI (which was lower than expected but exactly as rumoured). The end effect was a mildly bullish session for the AUD/USD inside a 1.0020/57 range.
USD/JPY has been steady inside an 83.20/44 range.
Cable traded 1.6025/61 and EUR/GBP .8409/23.
USD/JPY is holding up reasonably well and is only 30 pips off recent highs and going nowhere. The market is well aware of sell orders at 83.70 but they are not overly huge I’m told so there is a possibility that the stops above 83.80 get triggered sooner rather than later. Despite the BOJ comments and the industrial output figures, USD/JPY has still only traded the usual 25 pip range.
– Japan Industrial Output Posts 2nd M/M Rise
TOKYO (MNI) – Japanese industrial production posted a revised 3.3%
rise in December from November, marking the second straight month of
gains, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed on
The rise was led by higher output of passenger cars as well as
electronic parts and devices, as seen in preliminary data released last
Last month METI reported its survey of firms’ forecasts showed that
production will rise 5.7% m/m in January — revised up from the 3.7%
rise estimated in the previous month’s survey — but it will fall 1.2%
in February (first estimate).
METI upgraded its assessment last month, saying that industrial
production “is showing signs of an upward movement.”
In November, it asserted that “industrial production has weakened.”
Output of transportation machinery including automobiles, which
carry a heavy weighting in the index, rose a revised 5.3% m/m in
December (preliminary +5.1%).
Compared with the year earlier level, production in December 2010
showed an revised +4.9% y/y (preliminary +4.6%), slowing from +5.8% in
Other details from the latest data:
Shipments: Dec revised +1.2% m/m (preliminary +1.1%) vs. Nov +2.6%
m/m, posting the second straight monthly rise. The rise was led by gains
in electronics parts and devices as well as transportation equipment.
Inventories: December revised +1.6% (preliminary +1.4%) vs. Nov
-1.8%, marking the first m/m rise in three months. The rise in
inventories was led by gains in information and communication equipment
as well as electronics parts and devices.
The inventory-to-shipments ratio: December revised +0.4% m/m
(preliminary unchanged) vs. November -8.3%.
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4835 **
JAPAN DATA: Revised industrial output data from the Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry:
– Japan Dec Industrial Output Revised +3.3% M/M Vs Prelim +3.1%
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