January 30th, 2011 22:58:15 GMT

Quiet session for data


We will see a couple of numbers from Japan shortly which undoubtedly will be ignored…Manufacturing PMI and Industrial Production

Australian MI Inflation Guage and Private Sector Credit will have similar interest.

The Euro trades at 1.3580, as the market awaits further reaction from Tokyo and we see assessment of another geo-political shock to the (formerly ) establishing bull trend!

Just remember that these scenarios are usually short lived ( think Korea etc) so retain that ability to bend over backwards to be flexible ;-)

1 Comment

January 30th, 2011 22:04:25 GMT

Mubarak says….


  • New Government will not harm subsidies, will control inflation, will restore confidence in the economy
  • comments were made in a letter to the new prime minister in a letter outling his duties, report from Reuters

1 Comment

January 30th, 2011 21:56:06 GMT

NZ December Trade Balance Down NZ$ 250m


  • expected fall $100m
  • The Yearly surplus was NZ$ 1.13bn vs expectation $1.33bn
  • December Exports were on target at NZ$ 3.80bn
  • December Imports were higher than expected at NZ$ 4.05bn vs NZ$ 3.83bn expected
  • December New Housing Consents fell 18.6% against previous month

NZ/USD trades 0.7700 ish , low at 0.7698 and AUD/NZ 1.2855

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January 30th, 2011 21:19:40 GMT

EUR the most obvious ‘sell’ in times of risk aversion


Traditionally, the USD and the CHF are the main safe-havens in times of trouble and the big question then is which currency to sell.

At the moment, the EUR is the easiest currency to sell as Sovereign debt worries are never far from the surface so when traders are looking for a reason to be short, they don’t have to look far. The other currency which is often sold in times of risk-aversion is the AUD but that is still a very expensive short to fund.

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January 30th, 2011 20:44:36 GMT

EUR/USD: Stops reported below 1.3540


Reasonably heavy stops are being reported below 1.3540 and they may come in for some attention in early Tokyo trade if the EUR cross selling continues. The main technical target below there would be the 100-day MA at 1.3490.

1 Comment

January 30th, 2011 20:37:43 GMT

USD/JPY: Kampo bids expected around 81.80


If you want a strong currency, get one of the ratings agencies to downgrade your country’s debt, get into a deflationary spiral which will last for years, keep printing money and issuing debt and keep interest rates at zero. That’s what Japan’s situation looks like and the JPY seems unable to weaken.

The bulls are hanging out for Kampo bids which are supposedly in the 81.80 region.


January 30th, 2011 19:50:20 GMT

ForexLive Asian market open: Risk aversion to the fore


Fears of an escalation of the troubles in Egypt and a possible spread throughout the region have led to some risk aversion in early interbank trade. EUR/JPY is trading at 111.40 after closing at 111.75 on Friday night, USD/JPY is trading just below 82.00, and EUR/CHF is trading around 1.2800.

To all of our readers who may be affected by any of the troubles, good luck.


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