November 11th, 2010 16:13:58 GMT

Blink and ya missed it


If there was a barrier at 1.3650 it is now an ex-barrier as we dipped to 1.3648 for a nano-second.

1.3635 remains the key level to watch near-term with both a bottom on the hourlies and the 38.2% retracement of the August/November rally at that level.

1 Comment

November 11th, 2010 15:05:36 GMT

Model funds selling EUR/USD, traders say


Not sure whether they are cutting medium-term longs or setting fresh shorts but black-box type accounts are selling EUR/USD at the moment. Many use the 15:00 GMT time to resent their models and only trade once a day…

Traders report some stops right around 1.3635/40. Given Fibo support there, might be one of those deals where we do the stops, then rebound off that level…


November 11th, 2010 14:58:39 GMT

EUR/USD probes 1.3670; 1.3635 next support


EUR/USD made a probe below yesterday’s 1.3670 low, slipping to 1.3663 on the interbank EBS platform before steadying. A sustained break of 1.3670 opens the way for next support at 1.3635.

That level is the 38.2% retracement of the 1.2588/1.4283 rally as well as a bottom dating back to October 5. Options-related buying is expected ahead of 1.3650 and 1.3600…

11-11 eur


November 11th, 2010 14:39:28 GMT

US equities open weak


A poor outlook from tech giant Cisco is weighing on US equities, as is Irish-inspired risk aversion and fears China will have to raise rates further to clamp down on surging inflation.

The S&P is down 0.9% in opening trade while EUR/USD has dipped back to 1.3700.

1 Comment

November 11th, 2010 14:26:37 GMT

Trendline at 82.35 today


USD/JPY penetrated downtrend resistance yesterday but closed back below the line. Today the line is drawn at 82.35. A close above would be a further bullish signal along with yesterday’s close above 82.00. Keep an eye on the 10 and 21-day moving averages: They look like they could cross bullishly in the next day or so, a signal for some medium-term trend-followers to close close short positions.



November 11th, 2010 14:18:53 GMT

Risk aversion growing among the big boys


Thanks to Tom for the link…

Risk aversion is a dollar positive from a macro perspective.

Just crossing the wire, Ireland’s opposition party says it expects the government to have a working majority to pass the 2011 budget, a modest relief for EUR. A small positive. But as we’ve seen, passing a budget is easier than meeting a budget, a potential big negative…


November 11th, 2010 13:54:02 GMT

EUR/GBP helping Cable defy gravity


Who would have expected the Great British Pound would be the safe-haven from an Irish-inspired market storm? We live in interesting times.

EUR/GBP has fallen to the 0.8485 area on the Irish woes even as some fret that the UK banks have significant exposures to Irish property developers. Cable is up at 1.6150, less than two cents from trend highs despite the euro being 6 cents below its highs given the weakness in the cross.

0.8464 is important support for EUR/GBP near-term while 0.8520 is now resistance.

1.6185 and 1.6215 are near-by resistance for cable; 1.6105/15 is now support.


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