January 21st, 2011 03:37:27 GMT

Dollar slide holding ground for the moment…


Sellers up to the 1.3515 are succeeding holding down the Euro for the moment and simultaneously S/T support in USD/CHF at 0.9650 has held.

Cable resistance at 1.5943-51 held the first attempt at ’43′ to the pip and S/T support in USD/JPY is at 82.75-85

Mind you, it’s early days….


January 21st, 2011 02:45:28 GMT

JAPAN DATA: Demand for electricity from major users..


JAPAN DATA: Demand for electricity from major industrial users in
Japan rose 5.2% on year in December, accelerating from +4.8% in
November, the Federation of Electric Power Companies said. Power demand
rose 1.9% y/y in December 2009, the first increase after showing falls
in the previous 14 months. This piece of data is closely watched by
economists as it is correlated with industrial output.

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January 21st, 2011 02:11:50 GMT

For those on the hunt for UK property…..


I have blogged here before on my belief that the GBP/AUD was likely to be very undervalued towards that 1.50 level  and that buys near there ( 1.5150-1.5200) with a sub 1.50 stop might be a good trade; it’s 1000 points higher today. Don’t be embarassed…applause is allowed….;-)

However I also believe that UK property is undervalued, and exiting from Australian assets where the property market is ludicrous, could provide a double whammy on the plus side if you take a five year view….I am a pom but live in Oz ! I now have found the perfect property opportunity to complete my arbitrage…


January 21st, 2011 01:45:26 GMT

Japan Now Sees FY20 Primary Deficit 4.2% of GDP, Not Surplus


TOKYO (MNI) – Japan is estimated to post a primary budget deficit
worth Y23.2 trillion, or 4.2% of nominal GDP, in fiscal 2020, even if
the economy grows at around 1.5% every year in the next decade, the
latest projection released by the Cabinet Office on Friday showed.

The new forecast bodes ill for the government’s efforts to put the
fiscal house in order. Last year, it set a target of turning the gap
into a surplus by fiscal 2020.

The primary fiscal deficit — the budget deficit excluding both
debt-servicing costs from spending and debt issues from revenue — is
expected to total Y21.7 trillion in fiscal 2015, also 4.2% of GDP,
according to the projection.

Last June, the government said it will try to slash the primary
deficit to 3.2% of nominal GDP by fiscal 2015 from 6.4% of the total
output estimated for the current fiscal year ending March 31.

The latest projection is based on preliminary July-September GDP
data as well as the government’s economic outlook and budget plans for
fiscal 2011.

In the fiscal 2011 draft budget, which will be sent to parliament
next week, tax revenue is estimated to stay below the amount of new
government bond issues for the third straight year.

To meet the government’s target of posting a primary budget surplus
by 2020, the consumption tax rate would have to be raised to 14-15% from
the current 5%.

A sales tax increase by a full percentage point is believed to
generate an additional tax revenue of around Y2.5 trillion.

The outstanding balance of public debt issued by both the central
and regional governments is expected to exceed 200% of GDP in fiscal
2016, surging from an estimated 173.8% in fiscal 2010, the projection

In a more optimistic scenario, Japan’s primary balance deficit
would be limited to 3.2% of nominal GDP in fiscal 2015 and to 2.5% in
fiscal 2020 if real GDP grows more than 2% every year.

** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MGJ$$$,MT$$$$]

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