November 1st, 2010 17:53:26 GMT

EUR/USD on the mend; eyes 1.3920 retracement

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EUR/USD has retaken the 1.39-handle after a dip as low as 1.3864 late this morning. Minor resistance lies in the 1.3910/15 area while the 38.2% retracement of the drop from 1.4012 overnight highs comes in at 1.3920.

Asset markets are off their worst levels of the session with the S&P maintaining gains of about 0.5%. Oil is not far from session highs, now at $83.60.

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November 1st, 2010 17:31:01 GMT

USD/JPY: Weekly Technical Commentary 11.01.2010

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USD/JPY Chart Levels: Support 80.30…80.00…79.50. Resistance 81.00…82.00…84.00
Strategy Entry Stop T1 T2
Weekly: Long 80.70 +add 80.50 79.90 82.00 84.00

usdjpy1101wk

This week the market will be consolidating within Bollinger bands levels 80.00-82.00. A significant support level has been breached – 81.00. Market is dropping to the next intermediate target – 80.30. However, the next target fib at around 80.00 is more significant. Therefore, buying will have a higher risk than justified. The slopes of moving averages mA (200) and mA (100) also look bearish. Weekly trading range is within 80.00 — 82.00 levels.

2 Comments

November 1st, 2010 17:25:31 GMT

XAU/USD: Weekly Technical Commentary 11.01.2010

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XAU/USD Chart Levels: Support 1320.0…1280.0… 1250.0. Resistance 1360.0…1370.00…1400.00
Strategy Entry Stop T1 T2
Weekly: Long 1280.0 1220.0 1360.0 1388.00

xauusd1101wk

This week the gold market will trade within Bollinger bands 1280.00 – 1380.00 dollars per troy ounce. Since curves of moving averages mA (100) and mA (200) create a bullish combination, market participants are waiting for movement up rather than down. Previous bullish target T1 = 1350 was filled, so we are waiting for downward correction to re-enter Long. Now the market is testing resistance at 1359.50 level. If this level is not broken, wait for market consolidation within the Bollinger bands.

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November 1st, 2010 17:19:32 GMT

USD/CHF: Weekly Technical Commentary 11.01.2010

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USD/CHF Chart Levels: Support 0.9800…0.9750…0.9500. Resistance 0.9850…0.9880 …1.0000
Strategy Entry Stop T1 T2
Weekly: Long 0.9650 0.9540 0.9900 1.0000

usdchf1101wk

The currency pair is rising, after testing the recent bottom. The next couple of weeks it will be trading within 0.9650 – 0.9970. Turning point – 0.9850. If this resistance is breached, the next target is 0.9970. Declining curvatures of moving averages mA (100) and mA (200) are bearish, though the fact that mA (100) is located above mA (200) is still a bullish signal. Therefore, buying is associated with elevated risk concerning a sustainable rally.

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November 1st, 2010 17:14:22 GMT

GBP/USD: Weekly Technical Commentary 11.01.2010

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GBP/USD Chart Levels: Support 1.6000…1.5950…1.5800. Resistance 1.6050..1.6100…1.62  
Strategy Entry Stop T1 T2  
Weekly: long 1.5900 1.5790 1.6100 1.6200  

gbpusd1101wk

This week Cable will be trading in the range 1.5900 – 1.6200. Since curves of moving averages mA (150) and mA (200) show bearish combination, major market participants are waiting for more of a movement down than up. Nevertheless, oscillators show bullish signal. Previous key resistance level of 1.5800 was successfully broken, so the market can be bought on  pullbacks back down to around 1.5900 or even 1.5850. Next bullish targets 1.6100 and 1.6200 may present selling opportunities.

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November 1st, 2010 17:05:27 GMT

UPDATE:US ISM’s Ore Upgrades Outlook On New Order Strength

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–Retransmitting 12:35 Story, Recasting Lead Paragraph
–’Has This Changed the Seasonal Factors? It’s Possible.’

By Mark Pender

NEW YORK (MNI) – October’s great surge in new orders upgrades the
outlook for the PMI to a more gradual downward slope, according to
Norbert Ore who heads the Institute For Supply Management’s
manufacturing report.

“With new orders strengthening the way they have, the PMI should
hold up in the 54 to 52 area over the next several months,” Ore said in
a telephone interview with MNI.

The 2-1/2 point jump to 56.9 for the PMI, which had slowed in four
of the five prior months, is a surprise for Ore who had thought the
sector’s recovery was in a mature phase of slowing month-to-month
growth.

A 7.8 point jump in new orders to 58.9 is well beyond any similar
monthly gain in the last cycle when the index gradually eased to the low
50 area before its late 2007 plunge.

Exports were particularly strong in October, the result Ore
attributes to the competitive dollar. General demand for computers and
related goods was especially strong evidenced by short supply for
electronic components.

The auto sector, where activity was particularly strong, is the
month’s wildcard. Ore cautions that the push-back in this year’s auto
retooling to August from July may have pushed back resumption of auto
and auto-related production.

“Has this changed the seasonal factors? It’s possible,” Ore said.

Ore’s looking for the strength in new orders to translate over the
next few months into gains for non-manufacturing employment.

“There’s been no improvement on the non-manufacturing side. We
should start to see it crossing over manufacturing. That would be a
signal of solid recovery,” said Ore who has no prior access to the ISM
non-manufacturing report.

Anomalies in the report include improvement in delivery times which
Ore attributes to pre-established shipping schedules for raw materials.
He has no explanation for a slowdown in imports.

Ore suspects a second month of contraction for backlogs could be
noise though he does note that production held strong and steady in
prior months even while new orders were slowing, suggesting
manufacturers may have cut into backlogs by extending production of
standard product lines.

** Market News International New York Newsroom 212-669-6430 **

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$U$$$,M$UEQ$,MAUDS$,MX$$$$]

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November 1st, 2010 17:02:47 GMT

EUR/USD: Weekly Technical Commentary 11.01.2010

by

EUR/USD Chart Levels: Support 1.3900..1.3850..1.37. Resistance 1.396..1.4026..1.4100.  
Strategy Entry Stop T1 T2  
Intraday: Long 1.3750 1.3640 1.4026 1.4100  
Weekly: short 1.4275 + add 1.4400 1.4490 1.3890 1.3750  

eurusd1101wk

The euro is falling, while remaining within the medium-term correction upwards. Bollinger band on the daily chart shows bullish momentum with the closest targets 1.4026 and 1.4100. Selling pressure eased. In this context, it becomes more tempting to pick up the euro on the local bottom with close stop orders.

Based on the chart, the curve of moving average mA (200) continues to fall, favoring long-term bearish view. A mA (21) signals a short-term bullish preference. However, MACD (divergence) and Sstoch show buy signals and  can be traded Long intra-day. Support levels that were tested at 1.3900 and 1.3850 were the closest targets for the Fibo correction. The immediate target of the bull market is 1.4026 level.

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November 1st, 2010 16:45:51 GMT

US ISM’s Ore Upgrades Outlook For PMI On New Order Strength

by

–’Has This Changed the Seasonal Factors? It’s Possible.’

By Mark Pender

NEW YORK (MNI) – October’s great surge in new orders upgrades the
outlook for the PMI to a flat, less steep downward slope, according to
Norbert Ore who heads the Institute For Supply Management’s
manufacturing report.

“With new orders strengthening the way they have, the PMI should
hold up in the 54 to 52 area over the next several months,” Ore said in
a telephone interview with MNI.

The 2-1/2 point jump to 56.9 for the PMI, which had slowed in four
of the five prior months, is a surprise for Ore who had thought the
sector’s recovery was in a mature phase of slowing month-to-month
growth.

A 7.8 point jump in new orders to 58.9 is well beyond any similar
monthly gain in the last cycle when the index gradually eased to the low
50 area before its late 2007 plunge.

Exports were particularly strong in October, the result Ore
attributes to the competitive dollar. General demand for computers and
related goods was especially strong evidenced by short supply for
electronic components.

The auto sector, where activity was particularly strong, is the
month’s wildcard. Ore cautions that the push-back in this year’s auto
retooling to August from July may have pushed back resumption of auto
and auto-related production.

“Has this changed the seasonal factors? It’s possible,” Ore said.

Ore’s looking for the strength in new orders to translate over the
next few months into gains for non-manufacturing employment.

“There’s been no improvement on the non-manufacturing side. We
should start to see it crossing over manufacturing. That would be a
signal of solid recovery,” said Ore who has no prior access to the ISM
non-manufacturing report.

Anomalies in the report include improvement in delivery times which
Ore attributes to pre-established shipping schedules for raw materials.
He has no explanation for a slowdown in imports.

Ore suspects a second month of contraction for backlogs could be
noise though he does note that production held strong and steady in
prior months even while new orders were slowing, suggesting
manufacturers may have cut into backlogs by extending production of
standard product lines.

** Market News International New York Newsroom 212-669-6430 **

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$U$$$,M$UEQ$,MAUDS$,MX$$$$]

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November 1st, 2010 16:35:38 GMT

UK Data Forecasts Survey: Oct PMI Services, Producer Prices

by

LONDON (MNI) – Below is a poll of analysts’ forecasts for the
October services PMI data, due out at 0928 GMT on Wednesday, November 3
and the October producer price data, due out at 0930 GMT on Friday,
November 5.

[[
Data

! !Oct !Oct !Oct !Oct !Oct !Oct !
! !Producer!Producer!Producer!Producer!Core !Core !
!Oct !Input !Input !Output !Output !Output!Output!
!Services!Prices !Prices !Prices !Prices !Prices!Prices!
!PMI !m/m !y/y !m/m !y/y !m/m !y/y !
!Index !% ch !% ch !% ch !% ch !% ch !% ch !
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Forecasts
Median 52.6 1.0 7.4 0.3 4.4 0.2 4.4
High 53.2 1.8 8.3 0.5 4.7 0.3 4.6
Low 52.0 0.4 6.5 0.2 4.3 0.1 4.3
Previous 52.8 0.7 9.5 0.3 4.4 0.4 4.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Number
Responses 14 11 10 11 12 8 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------
ABN Amro 53.0 0.4 6.8 0.3 4.4 n/a 4.3
Action Econ. 52.5 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Barclays Cap 53.0 1.8 8.3 0.5 4.7 0.3 4.5
BNP Paribas 52.3 1.0 n/a n/a 4.3 n/a 4.4
Capital Econ 52.0 1.0 7.4 0.2 4.4 0.2 4.4
Citi 52.5 0.5 6.9 0.3 4.5 0.3 4.6
Commerzbank 53.0 1.0 7.5 0.3 4.4 n/a n/a
Global In. 52.7 n/a n/a 0.2 4.4 0.2 4.4
Investec 53.0 1.0 7.4 0.4 4.5 0.3 4.5
JP Morgan 52.4 0.6 7.1 0.3 4.5 0.2 4.4
Lloyds 52.5 1.2 7.7 0.2 4.4 0.2 4.4
Nomura 52.6 1.5 8.0 0.2 4.4 0.1 4.3
RBS 52.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
UBS 53.2 0.8 6.5 0.2 4.4 n/a n/a
------------------------------------------------------------------------

For further information contact David Robinson 44 207 862 7491
e-mail: drobinson@marketnews.com.

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]

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November 1st, 2010 16:23:33 GMT

1.3995/00 should cap near-term

by

EUR/USD is dusting itself off after a good deal of profit-taking following the ISM data. The strong manufacturing report clouds the outlook for the Fed on Wednesday and may prompt a good deal of caution from the FOMC members who are on the fence.

We will still get QE, how much and for how long is the question.

Overnight lows at the 1.3895/00 area should now act as resistance as we rebound in early afternoon trade.

16 Comments

1 11,524 11,525 11,526 11,527 11,528 11,529 11,530 11,531 11,532 11,533 11,534 15,565

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