January 25th, 2011 13:09:07 GMT

Once, twice, three time a loser…

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EUR/USD failed on three attempts to take out the 1.3700 level and has now more or less reached the measured move objective of the triple to on its slide to 1.3573 earlier in the session (1.3568 is the exact target but, heh, close enough…

Technically, it looks like we have put in a near-term top and it is time for a retracement/consolidation. If long, use rallies toward liquidate.

Asian central bank bids are rumored in the 1.3550/70 area and if they give way, the rush for the exits will accelerate.

1-25 eur

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January 25th, 2011 12:55:25 GMT

US ICSC-GS Weekly Store Sales -1.2% in Jan 22 Week

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WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the commentary from the
ICSC-Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot released Tuesday:

For the week ending January 22, weekly retail sales declined by 1.2
percent, according to the ICSC-Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales
Index. However, the year-over-year pace improved from the prior week,
increasing by 2.8 percent.

“Adverse weather in the East once again curbed discretionary
spending, negatively impacting sales,” said Michael Niemira, ICSC
director of research and chief economist. “However, January is a low
volume month for sales and although it is shaping up to be softer than
recent trends because of the impact of weather on discretionary sales,
there is little fundamental significance to read into that weakness,”
Niemira added.

For January, given the trends through the month, ICSC is lowering
its expectation for the month to a gain of about 2% — which is about
0.5 percent lower than the expectation earlier in the month.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: MAUDT$,MAUDS$,M$U$$$]

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January 25th, 2011 12:55:24 GMT

US DATA: For the week ending January 22, weekly……

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US DATA: For the week ending January 22, weekly retail sales
declined by 1.2 percent, according to the ICSC-Goldman Sachs Weekly
Chain Store Sales Index. However, the year-over-year pace improved from
the prior week, increasing by 2.8 percent. “Adverse weather in the East
once again curbed discretionary spending, negatively impacting sales,”
said Michael Niemira, ICSC director of research and chief economist.
“However, January is a low volume month for sales and although it is
shaping up to be softer than recent trends because of the impact of
weather on discretionary sales, there is little fundamental significance
to read into that weakness,” Niemira added. For January, given the
trends through the month, ICSC is lowering its expectation for the month
to a gain of about 2%–which is about 0.5 percent lower than the
expectation earlier in the month.

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January 25th, 2011 12:23:23 GMT

ForexLive European Wrap: Sterling floored by truly awful GDP data

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Sterling weakness is the story of this morning’s session. Cable down at 1.5780 from early 1.6000, having been as low as 1.5753 at one stage.  EUR/GBP is up at .8635 from early .8535.   The market was already cautious about the Q4 GDP data.  Vince Cable’s remark (see above) only served to heighten that caution. 

Stops just below 1.5900 were tripped just ahead of the 09:30 GMT release and it was all down hill from there.  Reserve bank of India bought just below 1.5800, but it did nothing to push back the tide. Medium-term model funds seen good sellers in wake of the terrible data. 

EUR/USD sits at 1.3625, down from early 1.3660. Inbetween it’s been a crazy helter-skelter ride.  We rallied early helped by Middle Eastern sovereign buying.  Sell orders were well-touted at 1.3680/00 ahead of decent sized barrier option interest at 1.3700.

We topped out at 1.3687, Asian sovereign seller noted around the highs.  US investment bank (not the one doing God’s work), BIS, hedge funds, Big German some of the names mentioned as notable sellers on way down.

Stops tripped through 1.3625 and 1.3600 accelerated the sell-of and we got as low as 1.3573 before recovery.  Buy orders, including sovereign interest, were well documented at 1.3550/70 and that helped stop the rot.

Sell stops seen through 1.3540. Buy stops seen through 1.3720.

USD/JPY little changed at 82.45.   Buy orders  82.00/20. Sell stops seen through 82.00 and 81.85.  Sell orders seen up around 83.00. Buy stops through 83.15.

7 Comments

January 25th, 2011 12:16:28 GMT

ECB Drains E76.5 Bln In One-Week Tender, As Expected

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FRANKFURT (MNI) – The European Central Bank Tuesday drained E76.5
billion from the financial system in its weekly operation to sterlize
purchases of Eurozone bonds, data released by the bank showed Tuesday.

The drained amount this week matched the total volume of government
bonds purchased by the ECB and settled as of last Friday. The total
drained amount was unchanged versus last week’s drain total, given that
the ECB purchased E146 million in new bonds last week and that the bank
rounds to the nearest half billion.

There were bids from 58 banks totaling E88.824 billion at Tuesday’s
draining operation, the ECB said.

The weighted average allotment rate for today’s operation was
0.89%, the lowest rate was 0.4%, and the highest rate accepted, or the
marginal rate, was 0.99%, the ECB reported.

The drained liquidity takes the form of fixed-term deposits. These
can be used as collateral in the Eurosystem’s refinancing operations.
The central bank will hold another liquidity-absorbing operation next
week to reabsorb this week’s term deposits when they expire, as well as
any additional amounts that might be injected into the financial system
in the almost inevitable event of new bond purchases.

–Frankfurt bureau; +49-69-720142; frankfurt@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MGX$$$,M$$FX$,M$X$$$,M$$EC$]

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