December 30th, 2010 13:47:58 GMT.

Seasonals seem to be in charge


Looks like specs are firmly sidelined and seasonal factors are firmly in play.

With much of Europe closed tomorrow for New Year’s Eve, it looks as though the typical month-end buying of EUR/GBP for the UK’s monthly payment to the EU is going through the market today. EUR/GBP is nearly a pence on the day, at 0.8610 from 0.8517 overnight lows.

The EUR/USD side of the market is generally supported by that flow while cable remains offered…

Not a fit day to speculate, in my view…Wait until Monday. Markets will not be at full strength but they will be demonstrably deeper…


December 30th, 2010 13:45:56 GMT.

US Jobless Claims Fell 34,000 To 388,000 In Dec 25 Wk


–Unadjusted Claims +24,879 to 521,834
–4-Week Moving Average -12,500 to 414,000

By Denny Gulino and Kevin Kastner

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment
benefits fell 34,000 to 388,000 in the December 25 week, more than
expected, as the adjusted “general downward trend” remains clearly
visible, the U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday.

The adjusted total was the lowest since July 12, 2008.

A Labor Department analyst said that despite the general surge in
layoffs in construction, manufacturing and some other sectors this time
of year, “the general downward” trend in the adjusted figures can be
clearly charted through the weekly ups and downs since the
no-seasonally-adjusted figures began climbing in September.

The week’s claims for Oklahoma and Alaska were estimated, the
analyst said, but otherwise it was “a clean week,” with no special

Unadjusted claims rose 24,879 to 521,834 compared to the
year ago’s 556,517.

The seasonally adjusted 4-week moving average dropped 12,500 to

Adjusted continuing claims were 4,128,000 in the latest week vs.
4,217,000 a month earlier, down 89,000.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate for the
Dec. 18 week was up a tenth to 3.3% adjusted, the same as
unadjusted, compared to 3.9% for both a year earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below
that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are
approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and
labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

The Labor Department said that the level of unadjusted Emergency
Unemployment Compensation benefits claims dropped 77,741 to 3,711,288 in
the Dec. 11 week. Extended benefits claims dropped 73,747 to 819,269.

The Labor Department reported that a total of 8,866,924 persons
claimed unemployment benefits in the Dec. 11 week, down by

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **



December 30th, 2010 13:35:21 GMT.

US DATA: Initial jobless claims -34k to 388k SA Dec..


US DATA: Initial jobless claims -34k to 388k SA Dec 25 wk (lowest
since July 12, 2008 with 415k expected) with prv wk revised up 2k to
422k. NSA claims +24,879 to 521,834. Labor analyst said despite the
surge of construction/mfg and other sector layoffs this time of year,
the adjusted “general downward trend” is still clearly visible through
the weekly ups and downs and the NSA surge since September. Seasonals
expected 14.1%/70k increase, got a 5%/25k increase instead, which was
turned into the adjusted 34k decline. Alaska,Okla estimated but no
unusual factors, a “clean week,” he says. 4-wk initial claims SA -12.5k
to 414k. Continuing claims SA +57k to 4.128 mln. In a survey wk
comparison, cont claims were 4.128 mln this wk (+57k) vs 4.217 mln, down
89k from a month earlier. Insured unemp rate 3.3%.


December 30th, 2010 13:30:19 GMT.

Claim plunge to 388,000


Yields are rising after the data. 10-year notes are up 6 bp on the day at 3.415%.

The weekly data was the lowest since July of 2008.

Holidays can distort numbers from week to week (though less today than in the past due to on-line reporting), but the trend is clearly improving.

Almost no reaction to the data…


December 30th, 2010 13:27:07 GMT.

Last data dump of the year


Jobless claims are seen edging down to 415k at 12:30 GMT.

Chicago PMI hits the tape at 14:45. It is expected dip to 61.0 from 62.5

Pending Home sales follow at 15:00. The index was last at 89.3.

The Kansas City Fed index rounds out the data year at 16:00 GMT…


December 30th, 2010 12:29:51 GMT.

Spain’s Zapatero: Fourth quarter growth will be positive


  • Minimum wage to rise 1.3%
  • Public deficit targets to be met in 2011
  • Government to concentrate on structural reforms in 2011
  • Savings banks need to strengthen capital, finish restructuring process
  • Savings banks need to improve credibility, solvency


December 30th, 2010 11:51:19 GMT.

Sterling having a hard time of it


And why not. Everyone knows it’s a piece of crap ;)

Cable down at 1.5425 from North American close Wednesday up around 1.5500, while EUR/GBP has advanced to .8590 at writing from around .8530.

Talk is a Spanish bank has been a particularly aggressive buyer of the cross, while UK clearer selling of cable has been noted.  There is also talk of  the usual European central bank month end buying going through in the cross. It’s goes without saying that cable and eur/gbp markets are horribly thin, exacerbating moves.

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