November 18th, 2010 09:00:50 GMT

Irish govt minister: Expects 4 year fiscal plan to be published around middle of next week

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  • Believes it will be shown that the Irish banks are solvent
  • Govt needs to improve its communications
  • May need help from international, European colleagues
  • Important to get terms and conditions of any assistance right

EUR/USD has seen acclerated gains. Seems as though breach of 1.3610 was significant (as mentioned in side comments) and we’ve rallied quickly to session high 1.3655, presently at 1.3640.

More stops noted through 1.3660.

Cable has duly tripped stops through 1.5950 rallying quickly to 1.5974 session high, presently at 1.5960.  As mentioned earlier more stops seen through 1.5980.

November 18th, 2010 08:57:10 GMT

Russia buys cable

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In recent trade. We’re back up at 1.5930 in increasingly choppy trade.

Still haven’t got confirmation of stops above 1.5950, but I bet they’re there.

I do have confirmation of stops through 1.5980 though.

November 18th, 2010 08:36:55 GMT

Irish central bank governor: Purpose of IMF visit to provide reassurance to international markets

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  • IMF visit will want to provide reassurance to investors and depositers in the banks
  • IMF provides loans not bailouts
  • If it’s agreed, IMF will give us a loan
  • Believes an IMF loan will be made available and drawn down as necessary
  • IMF/ECB/EU would not send teams if they didn’t think they could agree a package
  • Expects loan from Europe and IMF will be large
  • Loan will run into 10’s of billions of euros
  • With market uncertainty high, desireable that banks have more capital available
  • There have been substantial outflows of funds from Irish banking secotr since April
  • Outflow of corporate deposits has been replaced by funding from ECB
  • There has been steady drain of deposits, but the banks have facilities to deal with it
  • Ireland will be discussed at ECB governing council meeting
  • Interest rate of EFSF is expected to be broadly around usual IMF rate
  • Upto government to decide on accepting an IMF/EU loan
  • Believes IMF will not find much to disagree with on governments’ fiscal plans

Elsewhere, Irish/German 10-year govt bond yield spread has tightened to 565 bps, 12 bps narrower on day.

November 18th, 2010 08:15:53 GMT

BIS sells EUR/USD

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Not sure where they started (probably north of 1.3600) but it’s ongoing and they’ve been seen selling in recent trade. We’re presently down at 1.3580.

November 18th, 2010 07:55:16 GMT

Cable resistance holds first test; notable seller seen

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Well guess Jamie has something with his 1.5950 being significant resistance (what a clever old stick he is)

Having been to 1.5947 we’re back at 1.5930.  US custodial is said to have been notable seller in recent trade. Maybe they’ve been reading the Maestro’s comments.

November 18th, 2010 07:26:32 GMT

Cable ticks higher in early European trade

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Presently at 1.5940. Jamie yesterday was indentifying 1.5950 as important resistance. Guess there could well be buy stops just above there, although haven’t gotten confirmation of such as yet.

Some important data due today:

09:30 GMT: PSNCR for October expected 6.0 bln; PSNB expected 8.9 bln

09:30 GMT: Retail sales for October expected +0.2% m/m, +1.5% y/y

11:00 GMT: CBI trends, total orders for November expected -24 from -28.

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