AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY are looking quite soggy at the moment and dealers are having difficulty coming up with reasons to be holding either in an environment of increasing risk aversion.
AUD/JPY has dipped below the overnight low and the next major target is 74.60. EUR/JPY has also put in fresh lows this morning and the next target there is 108.00, where some decent sized buy orders are reported.
Many thanks Mike for the heads-up on Cisco shares which are 10% lower in after hours trade. The CEO has put out a rather uncertain outlook and they have also missed their revenue target. This will also weigh on Asian stockmarkets in early trade.
US-based banks will often times pass their order books on to banks in Australia or New Zealand just before 5pm NY time. Remember that liquidity drops sharply after 5pm for at least 2 hours until Tokyo gets started and so stop-loss orders are much more vulnerable. The Australasian traders have a quick look at the orders, see if there’s any stops close by, and then get about triggering them.
That’s been their place in life since I’ve been in the FX market. Every European or US trader will have a story about the order fills they’ve received during the Twilight Zone; from the bad to the downright dodgy.
It was the AUD/USD that led that little run lower and dealers say that stops placed just below the 200-day MA at .8960 were the target. They’re done, on to the next batch!
EUR/JPY has resumed it’s fall early in the Twilight zone and if the market moves appreciably at this time of the day it’s usually because there’s some stop-loss hunting going on. Next support is a previous daily low at 109.15.
Wall Street fell by up to 3% today, erasing all it’s gains from the first part of the year and this will set the tone for Asian markets. The Nikkei started the rout yesterday with a big fall and it’s likely to be more ‘risk-off’ again today. Whatever way markets are positioned will determine the short-term moves.
The EUR continued to give back many of it’s hard-earned gains overnight and as Gerry mentioned below, it has lost ground against all the other majors. The underlying problems for the EUR are never far away and long positions are easily spooked.
USD/JPY broke only marginally below it’s previous 84.80 low before bouncing but still looks to be a case of sell-decent-rallies in the medium term.
AUD will be affected by both inflation expectations and unemployment data today. The economy is expected to put on 20,000 new full-time jobs and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.1%.
Good luck today.
Not a good day for the euro, which has lost ground across the board. A combination of factors have weighed; rekindled worries over euro zone sovereign debt, lingering worries over health of European banking sector and a large dollop of general risk aversion as fears increase over global growth prospects.
EUR/USD is down at 1.2885 from early 1.2990, having been as low as 1.2864 at one stage. Given that Asian central bank selling has been a big feature of the past 24 hours or so, it’s probably only right and fitting that an Asian sovereign buying down around 1.2870 has lent much-needed support.
EUR/JPY is down at 109.80 from an early 110.15 while EUR/GBP is down at .8218 from early .8283.
USD/JPY up at 85.25 from early 84.80. Got as high as 85.49 at one stage, but couldn’t take out well-noted sell orders at 85.50. Real money and US custodial buying notable today.
USD/CAD up at 1.0460 from early 1.0390. The release of poor trade data (see above) certainly didn’t help the loonie’s cause.
AUD/USD down at .8990 from early .9016, the pairing undermined by the general risk averse backdrop. BIS seen buying around .9020 lent fleeting, but not lasting, support.
GBP/USD at 1.5675 effectively unchanged on the day. Strong selling of the EUR/GBP cross helped provide support. Some of the EUR/GBP selling was said to have been due to one off Uk pharmaceutical interest. Said to be related to dividend payment. China was also seen buying the pairing (cable) today which will also have helped damage limitation.
Versus consensus forecast of $169 bln and versus July 2009 deficit of $180.68 bln.
Fiscal year 2010 budget deficit year to date $1.169 trln vs comparable fiscal year 2009 deficit of $1.267 trln.
July is 22nd straight month of US budget deficits, longest string on record.
Meanwhile the White House says President Obama and top economic aide Romer have been discussing the global growth picture and will continue to evaluate. That’s good to hear.
EUR/USD back down at 1.2873 after buying from an Asian sovereign earlier offered some fleeting support.
Rekindled fears over euro zone sovereign debt (talk ECB bought 2 year Irish paper today as yields rose), European banks (ECB allocating $430 mln in 7 day credits at a tender offered in cooperation with the Fed to two banks) and general heightened risk aversion on global growth worries, continue to weigh.
US stocks continue to bump along the bottom, S&P still down 2.6%, while oil still off 2 bucks.
Founded in 2008, ForexLive.com is the premier forex trading news site offering interesting commentary, opinion and analysis for true FX trading professionals. Get the latest breaking foreign exchange trade news and current updates from active traders daily. ForexLive.com blog posts feature leading edge technical analysis charting tips, forex analysis, and currency pair trading tutorials.
Find out how to take advantage of swings in global foreign exchange markets and see our real-time forex news analysis and reactions to central bank news, economic indicators and world events.
Our authors have years of experience in financial markets and provide diverse, thought-provoking updates relating to news about global macro events and the worldwide forex economic calendar, with frequently updated content that is educational for traders at all levels from beginner to novice that can help traders make better decisions about forex trading.
Our forex news focuses on G10 events, macroeconomic indicators, major equities indexes, treasury and bond yields from around the world, politics as it relates to forex trading and news from the FOMC as well as global central banks in, Europe and Asia.
Learn More About The Forex Live Authors Here and Follow us on Twitter, Facebook & Google+