June 17th, 2010 13:29:29 GMT

Topside levels to watch

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6-17 eur

If EUR/USD continues its march higher, levels to watch are 1.2452, the May 28 high.

Beyond that, we have the 1.2652/72 area. 1.2652 is the 23.6% retracement of the November/June decline while 1.2672 is the high after the announcement of the ‘$1 trillion’ EU/IMF bailout…

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June 17th, 2010 13:16:21 GMT

Another one bites the dust

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Barrier, that is. 1.2403 the high.

A cluster of stops lies in the 1.2410/30 window and is the market-makers next target.

A successful Spanish bond auction along with hopes that published stress-test results will help sooth banking jitters in Europe are the fundamental justifications for EUR strength today.

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June 17th, 2010 13:05:53 GMT

ECB’s Weber Calls For Publishing Of Bank Stress Tests

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FRANKFURT (MNI) – Bank stress tests should be published within the
Eurosystem, European Central Bank Governing Council member Axel Weber
said Thursday.

The results should be disclosed by country and institution, Weber
told a banking convention here.

“This seems to be largely the consensus among different governments
in Europe, and that is an important step,” he said.

Stress tests are “only reasonable if governments are willing to
make the corresponding commitment to bring forward the necessary
recapitalization,” the president of the Bundesbank added. “We have that
in Germany…but we need it in other countries.”

Weber also mentioned new stress tests that will encompass
“different scenarios” than those previously studied.

–Frankfurt bureau; +49-69-720142; frankfurt@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$G$$$,M$$EC$,M$$CR$]

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June 17th, 2010 13:05:52 GMT

Text: EC, ECB, IMF Statement On Greece Interim Review Mission

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WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the text of the joint statement
Thursday by the European Commission, European Central Bank and the
International Monetary Fund with their initial findings from the interim
review of Greece’s fiscal program:

Staff teams from the European Commission (EC), the European Central
Bank (ECB), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Athens
during June 14-17 to follow up on recent developments and implementation
of policies under the economic program for Greece.

While the mission did not undertake a comprehensive review at this
time, its discussions suggest that the program is on track and that
policies are being implemented as agreed:

* Fiscal developments are positive with central government revenues
coming in closely as expected and with firm expenditure control in the
state budget. Based on preliminary cash data, through end-May, the state
budget deficit was lower than was projected in the program. A final
assessment would have to take account of developments outside central
government, for which complete information is not available at this
time.

* The pension reform is advanced and agreement has been reached on
many key parameters as envisaged in the memorandum of understanding. The
authorities are conducting the required projections to assess the
contribution that pension reform will make to improve the long-term
sustainability of public finances.

* Other structural reforms are also progressing, including in the
areas of local administration, privatization, labor market, and tax
administration.

* On the financial sector, good progress is being made toward
establishment of the Financial Stability Fund. Liquidity in the banking
sector remains adequate.

Next steps. The three teams will return to Athens toward the end of
July to conduct a comprehensive review under the program, including an
assessment of progress relative to quantitative targets and benchmarks
for end-June. This will be the first formal review under the program.
Satisfactory completion of this review would enable Greece to make the
second drawing under the program.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$$CR$,MI$$$$,M$X$$$,MFX$$$,MGX$$$,M$$EC$]

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June 17th, 2010 13:01:30 GMT

Spain does not need to go to market in July

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Spain has EUR 24 bln in maturities coming due in July. An economy ministry source tells Reuters that it does not need to go to market to borrow the cash next month.

Also on the wires, EU’s Barroso calls for stress test results to be released on a bank-by-bank basis and wants an EU-wide commitment from leaders that that will happen.

EUR/USD has firmed to 1.2385 in the wake of the Spain headline. Barriers are being protected at 1.2400. Stops lie in the 1.2410/30 area on rallies.

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June 17th, 2010 12:55:38 GMT

UK Treasury Sets Out Role Of BOE’s Financial Policy Committee

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–BOE Financial Policy Committee To Get New Raft of Powers, Tools

LONDON (MNI) – Treasury Minister Mark Hoban set out in parliament
Thursday some of the details of the UK’s new regulatory system, with the
Bank of England taking over the reins of power and gaining a new
Financial Policy Committee to mirror its Monetary Policy Committee.

Hoban said the FPC would be responsible for looking at the
macro-economic and financial issues that may threaten stability and said
it would be given the tools it needs “to address the risks it
identifies.”

A new Prudential Regulation Authority is being set up as a
subsidiary of the BOE, and Hoban said the FPC would have the power to
ensure the prudential regulator implements its direction by taking
appropriate action.

Hoban said the FPC would be accountable to parliament in the same
direct way the MPC is, and indirectly through its accountability to the
BOE’s Court of Directors.

BOE Governor Mervyn King will chair the new committee, and its
member will include the BOE Deputy Governors for monetary policy and
financial stability, currently Charles Bean and Paul Tucker.

The new BOE Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation, Hector
Sants, will also sit on the FPC, along with external representatives and
Treasury respresentatives.

It will take time for the new regulatory framework to be set in
place, with Hoban saying it would take two years to implement all the
relevant legislation to have them in place in permanent form.

Hoban said “an interim FPC will be set up by this autumn” in
advance of the relevant legislation being passed.

A consultation document will be available during the summer.

The PRA will also be chaired by King and Sants will be the CEO,
with Tucker also sitting on the board.

The third arm of the new regulatory structure is a new Consumer
Protection and Markets Authority, which will regulate retail and
wholesale firms and act as a “consumer champion.”

The CPMA is responsible for regulating the conduct of financial
services firms.

–London newsroom: 0044 20 7862 7491; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$,MFBBU$,MT$$$$]

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June 17th, 2010 12:39:45 GMT

EU/IMF/ECB: It’s all good in Greece

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  • Program is on track
  • Developments positive, firm expenditure control
  • Budget gap smaller than projected in May
  • Further review in July; if satisfactory, Greece gets second tranche of funding

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June 17th, 2010 12:35:10 GMT

US Jobless Claims Up 12K to 472K June 12 Wk; Surge Expected

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–Continuing Claims Bounce; Post-Holiday Wk Claims Usually Spike

By Denny Gulino and Ian McKendry

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment
benefits rose 12,000 to 472,000 in the June 12 week and the previous
week was revised up after seasonal adjustment, not surprising in a
post-holiday week, the U.S. Labor Department Thursday morning.

Meanwhile continuing claims in the June 5 week rose 88,000 to 4.571
million, after the previous week was revised up 21,000. The June 5
week’s continuing claims had initially been reported to have dropped to
a low not seen since the second week of December 2008, but the latest
figures restored continuing claims to trend, and except for the previous
week were the lowest only since late March.

A Labor analyst said only Oklahoma was estimated due to
technical issues. States reported initial claims from manufacturing
industries, construction and educational services, he said.

The reported 472,000 level was well above the Market News
International survey median of 453,000 and yet, the Labor analyst said,
should not have been that much of a surprise. Initial claims usually do
surge in the week following a federal holiday and the seasonal factors
expected an 8.4% rise of 33,000. Instead there was an 11.1% surge of
44,000 but still, the analyst said, in the range of what was to be
expected.

The seasonal factors expect a decline in claims in the coming week,
the analyst said, referring only to expectations embedded in past
performance, not what might happen additionally because of economic
factors.

The initial claims seasonally adjusted 4-week moving declined 500
to 463,500, the lowest only since the May 29 week.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate edged back up a
tenth to 3.6% in the June 5 week. It was 4.9% a year earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below
that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are
approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and
labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

The Labor Department said that there were 191,103 fewer unadjusted
Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits claims in the May 29 week,
lowering that category to 4,804,030. Extended benefits claims
rose by 22,133 to 416,513 not seasonally adjusted.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]

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June 17th, 2010 12:30:42 GMT

Claims rise 12,000 to 472,000, CPI falls 0.2%

by

Jobless claims remain stubbornly high, suggesting job growth remains muted despite an economic recovery.

Inflation remains under wraps, falling at the headline level but rising a tepid 0.14% at the core (ex-food and energy) level.

The US current account gap for Q1 was a bit narrower than expected at $109 bln. The market expected $121 bln. Q4 was revised lower to $101 bln from the previous $116 bln estimate.

Bottom line: Fed lower for longer.

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