5 hours ago | November 24th, 2014 01:06:13 GMT

USD/JPY orders



  • Sellers 117.90/118.00, stop losses above 00, then sellers again 118.50/60 and 118.80/00
  • Buyers 117.40/50 then 117.00/10, trading stop losses below 117.25/30

currently 117.68

Remember – Japanese market holiday today

5 hours ago | November 24th, 2014 00:44:25 GMT

EUR/USD orders


  • Sellers 1.2390 and layered higher through to 1.2450
  • Buyers 1.2350/60 then 1.2300

Currently 1.2381

6 hours ago | November 24th, 2014 00:05:02 GMT

Just joining us at the beginning of the FX week?


Greetings if you are just joining us for the start of the new Forex week.

Have a scan back through the weekend news,  there wasn’t a lot of market-moving items. Friday’s news is still having an impact, most importantly the speech from ECB head Draghi … in which he really didn’t say much new …. but the euro got trashed anyway. Gotta be a lesson in there, right?

Also, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut rates, giving a boost to the commodity space, including AUD (more from the links here).

Comments over the weekend too from head of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan.

For today …. well it’s a Japanese holiday, which will negatively impact liquidity levels in the forex markets, but so far its shaping up as a subdued sort of session. There aren’t any notable economic data releases scheduled for the session either.

7 hours ago | November 23rd, 2014 23:13:34 GMT

China Securities Times: China researcher suggests interest rate cut next year


China Securities Times (via Bloomberg):

  • China researcher suggests interest rate cut next year

This in the wake of the surprise rate cut from the PBOC on Friday … more here:

Also, just noting Deustche Bank are out with a research note – they expect two rate cuts next year

7 hours ago | November 23rd, 2014 22:54:26 GMT

AUD/USD & NZD/USD orders



  • Sellers 0.8715/20 through to 0.8750, stop losses above 0.8740
  • Some sellers early at 0.8700
  • Buyers 0.8650/60 then 0.8600

Currently 0.8671


  • Sellers 0.7950 through to 0.8000
  • Some selling 0.7890/00
  • Buyers 0.7845/55 but better size 0.7800/10

Currently 0.7879

8 hours ago | November 23rd, 2014 21:47:26 GMT

“Loan ‘Guarantee Chains’ in China Prove Flimsy”


In the Wall Street Journal today (gated): Loan ‘Guarantee Chains’ in China Prove Flimsy

It’s a good background piece on guarantee chains in China, where companies guarantee loans to other companies :

  • Played a large role in fueling China’s debt expansion over the last six years
  • Around one quarter of the $13 trillion in total outstanding loans as of the end of October were backed by promises from other companies and individuals to pay up if the borrower defaults

Reliance on these guarantees is now backfiring, regulators and analysts say, resulting in a surge of bad loans that banks had assumed were insured and threatening financial contagion

As economic growth has slowed … “guarantee chains—in which companies guarantee loans to other companies—are wreaking havoc in the wider economy”

Full article is here: Loan ‘Guarantee Chains’ in China Prove Flimsy. It makes for uncomfortable reading.

ADDED – Although the full article is gated, there is an extract here

8 hours ago | November 23rd, 2014 21:24:01 GMT

Australia Monday press – “More China rate cuts coming soon, sources say”


In the Australian  papers this Monday morning, the Australian Financial Review … “More China rate cuts coming soon, sources say”

Its an ungated article and it’s a reprint of the Reuters article Adam posted over the weekend.

More here:

And also, from the weekend:  Chinese Premier Li Keqiang: “Gentlemen, start your engines …”

AUD/USD trading 0.8678, slightly up from Friday’s US closing level

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