The Canadian CPI numbers today gave the loonie a final flourish but it’s since evaporated.
What’s the lesson in this?
If you strip out all the volatility, hype and headlines it’s all about growth. The Bank of Canada talked about better growth and Japan warned about slower growth.
What’s next? There’s a doji shaping up on a few Canadian dollar charts today and the hype-train in the stock market is looking a little overdone. I worry about a slide in risk trades so I’d take profits on CAD/JPY longs and look for some downside.
(Warning: tire pumping ahead) I’ve been touting CAD/JPY longs since they broke out.
The USDCAD tested topside channel trend line, moved down to the lower trend line and now has crossed the finish line by kissing the topside trend line again. I repeat.. you gotta love USDCAD to trade USDCAD (or be Canadian – like Adam). SEE PRIOR POST.
“Let’s do some driving, Lucius.”
PS This is not a solicitation to do a deal. We are in the last lap of the trading day
No it is too soon to make a technical opinion on the stock.
I will ride the BABA if I can tame it first. To do it, I need to define my risk
In reality this is the worst time to trade a stock.
Traders in the stock are driving blind as risk can not be defined.
Sure analysts can make judgments on the value vs. the revenue. They can compare it to other companies in the genre. They can speculate that in 5 years it will likely double which is a pretty good return on an annualized basis.
But why did they value it at $68 and it is now at $92.70? What if it goes back to the IPO price first? What will traders/investors feel like then? Will all the buyers at $95 and $98 feel good? Probably not.
For me, the picture (i.e., chart) where I can put a line on it, or a moving average of 100 or 200 hours. A picture that has some history of days, where I can see where buyers came in, or sellers sold. Those are more important to me. They allow me to tame the savage beast and judging from the first few minutes of trading, BABA is a beast.
It’s been a roller coaster of a ride this week and as we approach the end of it the greenback looks wanted, but there’s some key levels still to be breached as we’ve been highlighting in this session
So, on that note I’m going to leave you in Adam and Greg’s masterful hands and wish you all a great week-end. Make sure you find time to turn off your screens and chill.
This welcome return of a degree of volatility ( it’s all relative when you’re an ol’ git like me!) won’t be going away anytime soon so if this week wasn’t one of your best, fret not. Just learn from any mistakes, dust yourself down and look for another opportunity, because there will be many more coming along
Thanks for all your great input and banter again this week and I hope we’ve helped navigate you through the jungle along the way.
The earlier post asked for patience, and to watch the underside of the broken trend line (see post here)
The good technical news….
Are the patient sellers keeping the lid on it?
The not so good technical news..
The intraday sellers did not have not been as anxious as I hoped.
The market is moving toward the London close so the patient short trade will need to see the price move lower to take on the weekend risk. Otherwise, will revisit the idea that a high is in place on Monday.
Scottish National Party leader announces he’s stepping down in November from leadership of the party and as Scotland’s First Minister
If at first you don’t succeed, give up
Just kidding all you Yes voters out there. I know he’s been championing the cause for years but nonetheless the timing of his announcement is a little strange when, despite losing the battle, he has certainly moved lines forward in the war.
I guess he thinks the movement needs new legs. We’ll find out when we get more detail
For me as leader my time is nearly over but for Scotland the campaign continues and the dream shall never die
I have no intention of retiring from Scottish politics – there are a large number of things you are able to do when you’re not first minister or leader of a political party
I had to make a judgement as to whether I’m best placed to take that opportunity forward – and I think others are.And the party I’m sure will make a wise choice and take party and country forward. The most important thing is not about First Minister
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