2 hours ago | October 22nd, 2014 05:52:07 GMT

Nikkei holding gains into the close

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Off its highs but steady around 15,164 as we head into the close at the top of the hour

USDJPY also going nowhere fast at 107.01

Elsewhere also a quiet start with GBPUSD 1.6123 EURUSD 1.2725 USDCHF 0.9482 USDCAD 1.1220

No data to kick us in so let’s see what appetite European desks have first up.

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2 hours ago | October 22nd, 2014 05:10:16 GMT

Data coming up in this session 22 Oct

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Good day everyone

How’s your week going so far? All good I hope

Data wise we have the UK BOE MPC Minutes at 08.30 GMT which I have previewed here, along withUS CPI and Canadian interest rate announcement as the highlights

As always I wish you a successful session

Times GMT+1 (UK)

Economic Data  (1) 22 Oct jpg

Economic Data (1) 22 Oct jpg

Economic Data  (2) 22 Oct jpg

Economic Data (2) 22 Oct jpg

Economic Data  (3) 22 Oct jpg

Economic Data (3) 22 Oct jpg

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3 hours ago | October 22nd, 2014 04:48:15 GMT

Option expiries 10am NY cut 22 Oct

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  • USDJPY 106.10 (USD 653m) 106.15-20 (USD 352m) 107.50
  • EURUSD 1.2650 (EUR 400m) 1.2665 (EUR 710m) 1.2675 1.2680 (EUR 432m) 1.2685 1.2750 1.2800 (EUR 433m) 1.2840 (EUR 869m)
  • GBPUSD none
  • USDCAD 1.1200 1.1300 (USD 300m)
  • AUDUSD 0.8700 (AUD 764m) 0.8790-0.8800 (AUD 745m)
  • NZDUSD 0.7980 (NZD 375m)
  • EURGBP 0.7800 (EUR 391m) 0.7850
  • EURJPY  135.20 (EUR 844m)

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4 hours ago | October 22nd, 2014 03:45:15 GMT

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Australia Q3 inflation data benign

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Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 22 October 2014

USD/JPY found an early high above 107. but spent the balance of the session dribbling a little lower.  A very slight gain in the EUR/USD was enough to keep EUR/JPY narrowly tracking sideways. Cable, too, drifted slightly north, as the market awaited the MPC Minutes today.

NZD and AUD also mainly drifted higher in the session today. the AUD had a bit of a wobble on the release of Q3 CPI data, plunging below 0.8750 and jumping back up again nearly as quickly. The data confirmed the inflation outllok in Australia as benign (with the exception of housing – (see bullets, above)).

Oil and gold pretty much laid out a sideways track during the session too.

USD/CAD was barely changed ahead of the Polozoctomy coming up in the America’s session tonight (Preview: Bank of Canada decision could confuse and Forex Technical Analysis. A preview of the key levels for the USDCAD)

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5 hours ago | October 22nd, 2014 02:26:02 GMT

Forex Technical Analysis. A preview of the key levels for the USDCAD

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October 22, 2014: The Bank of Canada will announce their interest rate decision at 10 AM ET. Although, the overwhelming expectation is for no change, Adam Button, provided the fundamental backdrop of the nuances that might send the pair away from the current level.  You can read his report HERE.

This video will take a look at the technical levels that are the most important for the USDCAD through the report.

The Forex Market is volatile. Technical Analysis helps to define and limit risk for traders.

 

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5 hours ago | October 22nd, 2014 02:05:08 GMT

Australia – Analysts start to revise their RBA rate hike forecasts in the wake of benign CPI

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Today’s Australian inflation data is here: Australia Q3 CPI: +0.5 % q/q (vs. expected +0.4%)

Analysts are beginning to revise their forecasts of an RBA rate hike.
CBA chief economist Michael Blyth:
  • Q3 CPI data will reinforce the RBA preference for a period of ongoing stability in interest rates
  • He will review his cash rate forecast
  • Current forecast is for the RBA to be on hold until Q1 2015
JP Morgan:
  • Looking forward … inflation fundamentals … pretty benign
  • “the economy still carries a fair amount of slack (the jobless rate is rising and rates of capacity utilization are below average), wage pressures are at multi-decade lows, corporate pricing power is weak, and the pass through of lower AUD to higher prices for imported products will not continue indefinitely”
  • Global inflation pressures also easing
  • Forecasts inflation to stay in the bottom half of the RBA’s comfort zone in the quarters ahead
  • RBA has scope to lower the cash rate, should it become necessary to provide further support to demand
  • Doubts this will happen
  • “low inflation, alongside macro-prudential policies likely to be announced some time soon, which will mitigate risks in investor housing, mean the RBA will have scope to move. We believe, however, that it would take a confluence of pretty adverse factors to convince the ‘reluctant cutters’ at the Bank that further policy action was needed”
ANZ:
  • Say Q3 CPI data unlikely to have much bearing on the monetary policy debate
  • “While the RBA may need to upgrade its forecasts due to the weaker AUD (its latest forecasts were based on an AUD of USD0.93), they will be willing to accept inflation in the upper end of the 2-3% target band amidst weak labour market conditions, subdued capital investment outside of mining and downside risks emanating from Chinese growth and commodity prices”
  • ANZ retain their view that the RBA will remain on hold for a considerable period
  • First hike forecast in May-2015

Westpac:

  • We are seeing a recovery in housing inflation
  • Dwelling purchase costs rose 1.1%qtr which is a strong number following from the 1.6% rise in Q2
  • Rents continue to rise around trend with a 0.7% rise in Q3
  • We are seeing distinct weakness in consumer discretionary items in particular clothing & footwear (–1.0%qtr), and household contents (0.4%qtr) and a seasonally soft 0.6% rise in holiday travel
  • In a nutshell, the recovery in housing is underpinning domestic inflationary pressure but the weak consumer market (and most likely the increased competition in this space) is providing a significant offset despite the lower AUD. So while the print was broadly in line with our expectations, the weakness in consumer discretionary goods suggest that the outlook for inflation remains quite benign even give the recent weakness in the Australian dollar

 

Matthew Circosta, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in Sydney:

  • Lower inflation “certainly supports their case to keep monetary policy steady”
  • “There are other factors that they’re going to have to take into account when they’re setting policy and that’s the currency and the global risks that are playing out, but the bias is certainly toward monetary easing.’

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6 hours ago | October 22nd, 2014 01:39:41 GMT

PIMCO’s Mead: Australian dollar ‘just starting to show some cracks’

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PIMCO’s Robert Mead, managing director in the Sydney office and head of portfolio management in Australia:

  • Australian dollar ‘just starting to show some cracks’

(I hope he doesn’t mean like a plumber … I’ll spare you a pic)

  • Sees stable outlook for RBA for ‘extended period’
  • Sees Australia joblessness stay near current level
  • Australia’s rebalancing from mining ‘lackluster’
  • Sees Australia sub-trend growth for couple of years

Headlines on Bloomberg

 

 

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