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FOREX NEWS | CURRENCY NEWS BY FOREXLIVE
French Foreign Minister: Future of EU at stake
- France’s Juppe: Committed to ensuring a stable future for EU
- Juppe: confident we will find a solution tomorrow
- Juppe: Failure at EU summit would be catastrophic
So much for downplaying expectations… The comments come via Bloomberg.
Repeat after me: Underpromise, overperform; underpromise, overperform…
Try it, you Eurogroup wingnuts…
Deal or no deal?
In the case of the US debt ceiling, no deal seems likely, at least before the weekend.
The Eurogroup? Sure, they will come up with some convoluted package to keep all the various constituencies on board. Will it solve the problem? Not bloody likely…
But unless the Europeans fail utterly to address market concerns about the sustainability of Greek debt, a modest rally in EUR/USD into the weekend is to be expected.
Why? What can’t go down usually goes up… Asia has had a voracious appetite to support EUR/USD and keep a crisis attitude from prevailing. So far, it has worked to a “T” .
Only after a credible US debt reduction plan is passed will the dollar rally (if it doesn’t fall on risk assumption…) .
1.4250 and 1.4275/80 are near-term resistance levels. The 10 and 20 day moving averages are clustered in the 1.4270/1.4300 area. Those are reasonable near-term topside targets.
Suddenly, it’s summer
Looks like the market suddenly figured out its July and has gone into a state of semi-suspended animation. Fire up the BBQ and the algo at the same time!
Now I know why it’s quiet. The RedSox are playing a day game…
Greece releases deficit figures
The deficit for the first six-months of the year was EUR 12.75 bln, versus the target of EUR 10.4 bln. These figures were leaked a week or two ago, if memory serves…
No reaction from EUR/USD.
Brown Bros: 14% chance of EUR/CHF falling to parity this year
ForexLive: 86% chance it won’t!
White House: We are in eleventh hour of debt negotiations
- Obama willing to take political heat on debt choices
- August 2 remains real deadline date
- Obama has talked with Congressional leadership, meeting with Democrats this afternoon (House Dems oppose entitlement cuts)
- Opposed to short-term extension without long-term deal
Fitch: Will decide on US ratings outlook after a debt agreement is reached
- Credibility of deficit reduction as important as the headlines savings number
- Appears to be progress toward substantial deficit reduction plan
Gold and Greek CDS not that closely correlated
Greek CDS have doubled in price in the last few months while gold has only been able to nudge to a modest new high…
You know markets are quiet when the most exciting news is from the Bank of Canada
Gonna be a looonnng afternoon.
What subjects would you folks like to see covered?
I’ll take suggestions in the comments…
BOC’s Carney: Facing substantial headwinds
- CAD strength is one
- European crisis another
- Monetary policy can move away from exceptional stimulus as economy expands
- US will agree on debt ceiling hike; if not, profound market impact
Market Talk
Van Rompuy says EU to tell G20 that Greece should stay in euroThe EU has published a letter European Council President Van Rompuy regarding the G20 meeting in June....
CFTC: Euro shorts hit fresh recordIn the Commitments of Traders report: EUR short 195K vs 174K last week JPY short 18K vs 34K prior AUD...
Stocks limping into the weekendThe S&P 500 has fallen to a session low, down 6 points to 1314. Risk assets are following it lower. Share...
Economics
University of Michigan consumer snetiment index 79.3 vs 77.8 forecastMost useless number of the month, in my view, as it correlates with nothing. Not retail sales, not GDP… Risk-on...
French consumer confidence 90 in MayUp from upwardly revised 89 in April (prev 88) Share and Enjoy: Read More →
German Gfk June consumer sentiment indicator steady at 5.7From upwardly revised 5.7 in May (prev 5.6) Slightly better than Reuter’s median forecast of 5.6. Share...
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