EUR: rangebound against the USD but still bearish on the crosses

I continue to maintain that EUR/USD is in a consolidation phase between 1.3550/1.3850 which I expect to eventually break higher (but that could be in 3 or 5 weeks time). EUR/JPY, as we’ve discussed in the comment section, is trying to form a top at 125.25 and that level is looking technically quite strong. EUR/GBP has turned sharply south over the last few sessions as longs get nervous and start bailing. Once that pair starts moving in one direction with a bit of momentum, who knows where it will stop.

USD/JPY: my feeling is that the market is quite bullish

I don’t have the patience to trade USD/JPY but after talking with a lot of fellow traders the unanimous view (apart from mine) is that USD/JPY goes higher. Once the repatriation flows are over and done with, USD/JPY will take out resistance at 92.25 and establish a base for a move towards 100 over the next 9 months. Perhaps they are right but I cannot now start entering a trade with a possible exit time around Christmas. Until the JPY crosses can overcome their medium term downtrends then I cannot see how USD/JPY is going to rally.

Corporate sell orders at 91.10/20 and stops below 89.75 is what I’m hearing from the order book grapevine. Dip

Citi Techs add to tactical cable position

I went with them last week when they recommended a long trade at 1.4925 and that was a very nice little earner, thank you Citi bank. They are going for the big payday and have added to their position overnight at present levels, with a s/l raised to 1.5180 and a target at 1.5700. I think they may be biting a bit too much off with this trade but good luck to them.

Asian FX market open: AUD uptrend recommences

After a period of consolidation between .9100/.9200, the AUD/USD looks like it has recommenced it’s uptrend and I am looking for a move now above and beyond .9400. The GBP has also continued to undo its severely oversold status but I think it will struggle to make more sharp gains as we near the 1.55 breakdown level. EUR/USD is rangebound 1.3550/1.3850 (with a bullish bias in my opinion) and USD/JPY is, well, USD/JPY (enough said).

Good luck today.

ForexLive US wrap-up: Commodity currencies lead charge

• US PPI -0.6%; ex-food and energy +0.1% in February
• Greek finance ministry: EU failure to act will hurt euro
• Greek PM: Will not leave Eurozone
• Bernanke: US having no trouble selling debt
• US yields mixed; 2-year note rises 1 bp in yield to 0.92%; 10-yr falls 1 bp to 3.64%
• S&P closes higher for 7th straight session, at 18 month high of 1166
• Gold falls, ends session -$6 at $1119; oil up $1 to $82.73

The us session was characterized as one of backing and filling by the major currencies and continued rallies among the commodity pairs.

EUR/USD pulled back during the US session running into selling at the 1.3780 area once this morning and again later in the session. The first move to the downside triggered trailing stops below the 1.3760 level. We fell as low as 1.3727, holding above the afternoon lows posted ahead of the Fed yesterday at 1.3716. Late afternoon EUR/JPY sales helped knock the pair lower in its range and we end the day around 1.3740, a disappointment for those hoping for a bullish close above the 1.3800 level.

EUR/JPY approached the highs posted late last week above 125.00 but failed miserably and ended the day heavily on the defensive, around the 123.95 level. A break of 123.30 support would be very bad technical news for this cross.

Cable spent most of the US session consolidating after a moonshot in London on unalloyed short-covering. Upbeat UK employment data helped prompted GBP shorts to dash headlong for the exits. Bulls experienced their own moments of doubt and pain as prices pulled all the way back to 1.5275 to inflict pain on latecomers to the pound’s party. We end the day at 1.5325, well clear of the downtrend line in place since mid-January, a bullish sign.

AUD and CAD each for the bulk of the North American session. USD/CAD triggered a barrier at 1.0100 and slipped as low as 1.0075 before stabilizing. That’s the Loonie’s firmest level since the summer of 2008. AUD/USD rallied to 0.9350 and ends the day well supported at 0.9235. Australian sellers are seen in the 0.9250/60 area, traders report.

I spy a potential double top in EUR/JPY

Since stalling at 125.07 this morning in London, EUR/JPY has had the potential to form a double top with the prior high at 125.21. A break below the low between the two peaks which comes in at 123.24 is the trigger point. A break of that level implies a decline of roughly two-JPY to come, on a measured-move basis. Stops from short-term players lie just below the 123.80 level, traders report.

AUD/USD consolidating gains after rally reaches 0.9251

If there were a barrier option at the 0.9250 level, it has been swept away after we traded as high as 0.9251 a short while ago.Aussie banks are said to be working offers between the 0.9250 and 0.9260 level this afternoon.

Both AUD and CAD are taking turns leading the parade today as the commodity currencies outflank the big, developed economies.

Interestingly, gold does not share the enthusiasm of the commodity currencies on a day when the dollar is softer and commodity currencies are at multi-month highs. It is at session lows around $1120.

Greek PM: We prefer European solution to Greek problems

But, if borrowing costs too high could seek other solutions.  We’ve been here before.

Papandreou has been meeting with European Commission President Barroso.

Barroso for his part says we shouldn’t speculate about timing of Greek aid.  Commission to propose reinforced EU economic policy cooperation next month. Greece hasn’t asked for help, but Commission actively working with member states to design aid mechanism for Greece.

Was it something I said?

We’ve got a power outage here at ForexLive Global HQ…I’m using my mobile to update this, which is not very satisfactory. Hopefully we will be back up and running soon…

Greece: Failure to decide of debt support will be crucial for the euro’s future

Reuters is running a headline from the Greek deputy finance minister saying that the EU’s failure to decide on a a debt support mechanism will be crucial for the euro’s future.

The EU has kicked the can down the road for another month or tow and the market will gloss over Greece until they come to market for more bond dales. If those sales go poorly, the EUR/USD will come under renewed pressure. If they go well, the market will turn to other issues.

EUR/USD is ignoring the comments, trading at 1.3760.