Canada rate hike a coin flip, almost

A Reuters poll of Canadian economists shows that 55% expect a 25 bp hike from the BOC next week to 1%. For what its worth, 10 of 12 primary dealers  (firms that deal at Canadian bond auctions) see a hike next week.

Looks like we could get some volatility on Wednesday, if nothing else.

Looks like Twitter the cause of the Twitter problem

Looks like we are not alone in our problems with Twitter today…

No spill in Gulf: CNBC

CNBC reports that early reports indicate no spill in the Gulf of Mexico after an explosion on a rig….

Reuters: Euro zone and Japan have not discussed intervention

Reuters quotes unnamed sources as saying officials in the euro zone and Japan have not discussed Euro zone participation in intervention to weaken the JPY.

The source offered these wise words “Do not pee into the wind, only with it.”

Profound.

Few expect Japan to garner much support from the G7 regarding intervention but they don’t expect any protest from other members, either.

I would not be at all surprised if intervention were to come that the Fed, ECB and BOE will intervene in the markets on the BOJ’s behalf, but almost certainly not for their own accounts.

Another rig explodes in Gulf

Here we go again. Another oil rig has apparently exploded in the Gulf of Mexico.

Could be another very quiet afternoon

Yesterday was extremely slow in the US afternoon and I fear a repeat today.

The stakes are fairly high tomorrow as an employment report that exceeds expectations will further buttress hopes that the US will be able to avoid a double-dip recession. If the data is better than expectations, look for safe-havens like USD, JPY and CHF to bear the brunt of the price action. Commodities currencies are the likely winners with majors like EUR and GBP next in line.

IF the data is appreciable worse than expected, turn the above forecast upside-down…

Reflation plays like AUD and CAD would suffer and the USD, JPY and CHF would be the likely winners.

GBP/USD pops on short-covering as stops survive

Stops below the 1.5350 level survive their brush with a near-death experience and traders have been forced to scramble to cover. Low and behold, we’re up to 1.5400. She’s a cruel mistress, cable…

EUR/USD looks like it is building a right shoulder to me

Is EUR/USD building a head and shoulders bottom on the daily charts? Looks like it to me. A few days of consolidation below 1.2850 would set the stage. Unfortunately, with payrolls ahead tomorrow, odds of  narrow consolidation seem low.

Food for though…

Citi sells GBP/AUD

They sold at 1.6880 looking for a move below 1.63…Stoploss 1.7050.

Think tank: December SNB hike still a possibility…

A high-profile NY think tank which prefers to remain nameless says there is a possibility that the SNB could hike rates in December, though the odds are diminished (probably by the strong currency).

They firm sees the SNB hiking before the ECB, regardless.

Intervention cannot be ruled out, but it would not be as large as earlier efforts, they say…

My take is that the currency tightens monetary conditions enough that the SNB will refrain from hiking for soe time to come.