- prior close 6.1514
- 7-day repo has opened at 3.3% (prior close was 3.5%)
Australian PM Abbott:
- Tax reform white paper to be released this year
- Says Australian governments have been living beyond their means
Abbott speaking to the media in Adelaide
Its true – there is a mud-wrestling match between Draghi and Kuroda on the Friday evening, just for a bit of fun*! Awesome!
Its all here, in the official schedule (and here it is from a little earlier, my DIY effort)
(*OK, don’t believe everything I write … especially on quiet days …)
The schedule for the Jackson Hole symposium has been published.
Its up on the Bloomberg now.
I’ll get a link to it on the web once the KC Fed decide to provide one (how hard can it be?)
Update …. Breaking … the KC Fed webpage where it is due for publication is not currently available, so I guess its on the way …. either that or we have managed to crash their site …
While we wait…
It’ll kick off with opening remarks from Janet Yellen at 8am mountain time Friday (10am NY time, 1400GMT)
If ya want something done, just do it yourself …
Here’s the schedule as it appears on Bloomberg as the KC Fed doesn’t seem to think it fit to stick it on the web …
All times are Mountain Time (add 2 hours for the time in New York, so 8am Mountain is 10am New York….. and add 6 hours for the GMT, so 8am Mountain time is 1400GMT):
OK, finally ….
There is an interesting article in the the Financial Times (gated, but can be read with a free registration) discussing the symposium at Jackson Hole:
- The Federal Reserve in Washington has sometimes been uncomfortable as the hoopla around the conference grows year after year.
- In his later years in office, Ben Bernanke made sporadic efforts to play the conference down, giving a low key speech in 2011 and skipping it altogether in 2013.
And this year, there has been a notable shift in the guest list to highlight “that the conference was never designed to communicate monetary policy and Ms Yellen may not have a blockbuster in mind this year”
- There will be no Wall Street economists present (the 2013 forum included Wall Street economists such as Martin Barnes of BCA Research and Jim O’Sullivan of High Frequency Economics, plus regular financial guests such as Phillipa Malmgren of Principalis Asset Management, all are absent this year)
- “Some of this is an issue around the potential appearance problems of having people from major primary dealers at a conference sponsored by the Fed,” said one economist of a Wall Street bank, who was not invited this year
Who will be there?
- One outside economist is William Spriggs, chief economist of the AFL-CIO, the umbrella organisation for America’s union movement.
- (Oh, and also, some protesters)
The article concludes:
One point Ms Yellen may choose to emphasise again is that the Fed will raise interest rates earlier than planned if the economic data keeps coming in stronger than expected. The Fed has been using steadily stronger words to try and send that message, but financial markets have paid little attention, with the ten-year bond yield close to its lowest level for a year at 2.41 per cent. That could mean Ms Yellen sounds more hawkish than markets expect.
I posted yesterday on BNZ says the lower NZD may remove an impediment to the RBNZ resuming rate hike cycle
More from BNZ today, commenting on Thursday’s migration data ( New Zealand – July net migration +4540 (+4270 prior))
- NZ net migration (is) at an historically strong pace
- July recorded a seasonally adjusted gain of 4540, up from 4270 in June
- This is a measure the RBNZ is watching closely. It sees it primarily providing additional demand stimulus.
They go on (bolding is mine):
- Along with strong business confidence and PMI and PSI data, we see it as a reason for the market not to get too carried away with reducing OCR hike expectations
- Currently the market only prices around a 25% chance of hike by year-end, and around 40 bps by this time next year
- We believe this pricing is looking quite skinny, particularly as the NZ TWI has now fallen to the RBNZ’s Q4 forecast average
Meanwhile, Westpac says:
- The RBNZ is on hold for the remainder of 2014. That means global factors should dominate.
- There are early signs the US dollar index has found a medium term base at 79.0. If so, the NZD/USD high of 0.8836 on 7 July should represent the beginning of a major decline into the low 0.80s.
And on AUD/NZD:
- The RBNZ is on hold for the remainder of the year, while the market has yet to start pricing in an RBA tightening cycle which should launch in August 2015.
- The next major target is 1.1200.
- The upward trend in NZ interest rates remains intact, mainly due to the RBNZ tightening cycle which is now around 40% complete.
- However some consolidation during the next few months is likely since the RBNZ has signalled a multi-meeting pause.
A poll conducted by Reuters finds:
- 61% of firms say it is harder to secure sufficient workers
- 44% say labour costs may squeeze profits this financial year (most of those 44% predicting recurring profits could fall between 1 percent and 10 percent … But the remaining 56% said they did not expect any impact, with some respondents saying they were able to absorb costs as profits were growing)
- About a third plan to increase hiring in next business year
- The survey was conducted from August 4-18 by Nikkei Research for Reuters
- It polled 487 firms capitalised at more than 1 billion yen
- Responses were anonymous
- Around 270 firms answered questions on hiring
The article says labour shortages are because of an ageing society and may be a drag on growth.
There is more at the article, which will be up soon (I’ll post a link ASAP). Here it is: Japan firms hit by labour crunch, many see profits squeezed -Reuters poll
Charles Plosser, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, was speaking in an interview on CNBC a little earlier, headlines from him are here: Fed’s Plosser: Says he is concerned that monetary policy is not reacting to change in data
The Wall Street Journal have a recap of his comments up now in (ungated) article: Fed’s Plosser Warns Very-Easy Money Policy Increasingly Risky
- He said that the U.S. central bank’s expectation of maintaining its near-zero-percent interest rate stance well into the future is “risky policy.”
- And he remains uncomfortable with the central bank telling markets and others that it will carry on with its very easy money policy well into the future
The interview was done at Jackson Hole.
Did you know there is a football team in Australia dubbed the “Hawks”? No-one named Plosser plays for them. Gotta fix that.
Forex headlines for August 21, 2014:
- August 2014 US Philly Fed business survey 28.0 vs 19.2 exp but details suspicious
- August 2014 US Markit manufacturing PMI flash 58.0 vs 55.7 exp
- US July existing home sales 5.15m vs 5.02m expected
- US initial jobless claims 298k vs 300k exp
- July US leading index +0.9% vs +0.6% expected
- August 2014 eurozone consumer confidence -10.0 vs -9.0 exp
- Fed’s Plosser: Says he is concerned that monetary policy is not reacting to change in data
- Fed’s Williams: Rate hike in middle of 2015 seems reasonable
- Fed’s George says broad based jobs gains signal rates can rise
- UK’s Osborne set to miss borrowing target this year
- J.D. Power forecasts 16.5 million US auto sales rate in August
- SocGen advise selling cable on the central bank hawkish balance
- Argentina’s plan to switch to domestic bonds illegal, judge says
- Japanese think tanks cut GDP estimates for FY 2014
- US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 2.41%
- WTI crude up 52-cents to $93.98
- Gold down $14 to $1277
- S&P 500 up 6 points to record 1992
- NZD leads, JPY lags
The power of Yellen was on full display today. On most days when all the US data beats expectations you’d expect to see some US dollar strength but Yellen has the market so scared of another round of dovish comments that the USD bulls decided to head to the sidelines.
The winners were the commodity currencies as they steadily climbed higher and finished near the best levels of the day. AUD/USD was on a constant march to 0.9303 from 0.9275 at the start of US trading.
The euro also took advantage, on short covering no doubt. Last at 1.3283.
USD/JPY was caught in between opposing forces. The dollar selling weighed overall but the stock market rallying to record highs brought in dip buyers on a slide to 103.60 and the pair is back to 103.83.
Cable remains in the doldrums and even a modest bounce to 1.6600 was met with selling and a drop to 1.6580.
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