November 21st, 2014 16:03:32 GMT

November 2014 US KC Fed manufacturing index 7 vs 6 exp

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  • Prior 4
  • New orders 2 vs 1 prior
  • Export orders 8 vs -9 prior
  • Employment 9 vs 6 prior
  • Production 9 vs 3 prior
  • Prices paid 12 vs 17 prior

Healthcare costs are still a big burden to firms looking to increase employment and we probably overlook that more than we should as far as looking for reasons wages aren’t rising.

US KC Fed mgf index 21 11 2014

US KC Fed mgf index 21 11 2014

US KC Fed mgf index chart 21 11 2014

US KC Fed mgf index chart 21 11 2014

 

November 21st, 2014 16:00:12 GMT

Kansas City Fed manufacturing index 7 vs 6 exp

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The low-tier manufacturing index from the Kansas City Fed.

The market is still reeling from yesterday’s ultra-strong Philly Fed but there’s nothing here to confirm it.

Next week, the Richmond Fed is due Tuesday and the Chicago PMI on Wednesday. They will be closely scrutinized.

November 21st, 2014 15:43:17 GMT

USD/JPY sliding back towards lows

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USD/JPY is wilting heading into the weekend, even with US stocks at record highs. It’s been a recurring theme late in the week.

Earlier today, Japanese finance minister Taro Aso told a news conference the speed of the yen’s recent decline was “too fast.” He added, “There is no doubt about that.”

The comment quickly sent USD/JPY to the lows of the day at 117.34. The latest push found some support at the European low of 117.50 and that acted as some support in a rebound to 117.63.

USDJPY intraday

USDJPY intraday

November 21st, 2014 15:26:56 GMT

California leads US jobs market in state-by-state breakdown

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With winter beginning to bear down, who could turn down a job in California?

The Labor Department delivered its state-by-state breakdown of the US jobs picture and the usual suspects led the way. California added 41.5k jobs, Texas 35.2k and Florida 34.4k.

That’s largely driven by the huge populations of those states. But if you’re a job hunter, North Dakota is easily the best place to be with an unemployment rate of just 2.8% while California is near the bottom at 7.3%.

The state report shows over all US unemployment down to 6.0% in October from 6.2% in September but that’s still below the nationally reported rate of 5.8%.

The top sectors were ‘trade, transportation and utilities’, ‘government’, ‘education and health’ and ‘professional and business services’. The top three sectors aren’t particularly driven by the private economy and that’s worrisome.

November 21st, 2014 15:21:41 GMT

US stocks up? You’re kidding?

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Did someone mention QE today?

  • S&P +16pts to 2069
  • Dow +150pts to 17869
  • Nasdaq +34pts to 4736

US 10 year yields 2.33% -1bp

US stocks getting a lift from their European cousins, who are all basking in the glory of Draghi’s utterances this morning. Near enough 2.5% – 3% gains in all bar the FTSE (Come on England).

 

November 21st, 2014 15:17:09 GMT

Forex Technical Trading: USDJPY doing more watching today

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The JPY has been a focus currency of late with the bias being to the downside. The currency is higher today against most of the major currencies except the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) but overall, the changes are somewhat minimal.

The USDJPY is mixed today, up a little against the EUR, GBP, CHF and USD, but down against the AUD, CAD and NZD

The USDJPY is mixed today, up a little against the EUR, GBP, CHF and USD, but down against the AUD, CAD and NZD

Looking at the USDJPY, the pair is down on the day, fell below some trend lines in the process (see chart below), but has a bunch of red and green bars indicative of a “market” that is more ambivalent at the moment. It seems to be taking in the action of the EUR and is enjoying being in the background.

The USDJPY has some bearish/consolidation clues, but remains above key support too.

The USDJPY has some bearish/consolidation clues, but remains above key support too.

The pair remains above the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) and seems to be forming another trend line on the downside, above that MA level. So although there is a move below the trend lines, the action suggests it is more “just because it ran out of upside speed”. A move below the 100 hour MA (and staying below) would be more of a bearish event.

Can sellers take some joy?  Yes. Can you sell?  Yes, there is the break and slowing of the rally. Are they comfortable?  Not totally (watch 117.93-118.00 as risk – the 117.93 was the high going back to October 2007). The buy the dip remains more of a theme vs. the high is in place.  Get below the 100 hour MA (blue line in chart currently at the 117.42 level) and comfort may be increased, but the 117.00 level remains another key support level that should give cause for pause on any sell off (old ceiling high and the 38.2% retracement is at the level).

PS..I should also point out, that correction from the high to the low is 160 pips.  The Adam 150 pip rule is in effect (of course it gets harder as the price trends higher).

 

November 21st, 2014 15:05:58 GMT

Which bank fancies EUR/GBP at 0.6500?

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It’s Goldman Sachs again. They’ve been getting their 2015 sales pitch Top 10 themes for 2015 out and about and one is calling for the pound to have a stormer against the euro

You might have a bit of a wait on though as the 0.65 target is for 2017. The move will come on capital inflows rather than trade effects, they say. Their prior forecast was for 0.85.

Eamonn has had most of the calls out over the last few days and they include;

In among those links there’s a whole host of other calls on China, EM’s, interest rates, and no doubt we’ll be hearing plenty more.

I’m still short EUR/GBP so will be more than happy to see that number, but that’s a very long way out to make a call so I won’t be paying a blind bit of notice to it :-D

 

November 21st, 2014 14:57:06 GMT

Citi pay the price (again) for fiddling FX market

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Not only have they been hit with over $1bn in fines by US and UK regulators over currency manipulation, they’ve also been dropped by the ECB ‘s “expert” forex  working group, reports Reuters

The ECB have brushed it over saying that the move was part of of an ongoing annual review (cough…bullsh*t…cough) but an ECB insider says it is related.

Out of all the banks fined Citi were hit the most. The declined to comment on the ECB story.

 

November 21st, 2014 14:35:34 GMT

Greece can “technically” stretch out EU program beyond 2014 – MNI

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Of course they can. EU rules are made of rubber.

MNI report a senior EU official saying that Greece can extend the bail out program but with strict conditionality, if the fifth Troika review is not completed by the end of December. EU’s Jeroen Dijsselbloem has made clear he expects the review to be completed on time, but the official stated the extension;

“it is technically possible for up to 12 months,but it has been made clear to the Greek authorities that a new memorandum of understanding will be signed which will include all the tough measures Greece needs to take and all the pending structural reforms and pre-requisitions.”

On and on and on it goes.

 

 

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