10 hours ago | October 24th, 2014 14:18:02 GMT

Big figures contain the excitement in EUR/USD and GBP/USD

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1.2700 and 1.6100 have held so far on a run up while the dollar had a little flip out to 107.79

That’s recovered back to 107.94 and a push back above 108 will probably mark the end of a break through those big figures.

Don’t discount that the UK GDP news and European bank news may cause some unwinding of shorts going into the weekend. The market was looking for the worst case outcome and they haven’t/may not get it. If sentiment turns so do the prices and the trades.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD 15m chart

EUR/USD & GBP/USD 15m chart

2 Comments

10 hours ago | October 24th, 2014 14:00:07 GMT

September 2014 US new home sales 0.467m vs 0.470m exp m/m

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  • Prior 0.504m. Prior revised to 0.466m

On the money but the revision makes the report weaker.

The buck is more or less unchanged. USD/JPY 107.96, EUR/USD 1.2680

Homes for sale rises to the highest since July 2010 at 207k vs 204k in August. The West of the US saw an 8.9% drop. Average selling price $259k vs 269.8k prior, lowest since August 2013.

US new home sales by region 24 10 2014

US new home sales by region 24 10 2014

US new home sales September 2014

US new home sales September 2014

2 Comments

11 hours ago | October 24th, 2014 13:08:54 GMT

Forex Technical Analysis: EURUSD unfazed by talk of 25 stress test fails

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The EURUSD is trading at new highs despite the Bloomberg report that 25 banks have failed the stress test (SEE Ryan’s report at ECB draft doc says 25 banks to fail bank tests).   I should say, there was a dip but the price has bounced back and with the very narrow trading range, it does not take much to make a new low or a new high. The high is the squeeze of choice.

The high yesterday came in at 1.2675. The underside of the broken trend line comes in at 1.2685. The 38.2% of the weeks trading range comes in at 1.2700 (really 1.26995)  and the 100 hour MA comes in at 1.2704.     I expect that sellers will line will look to defend the underside of the trend line. So look for sellers leaning against there (it worked yesterday).  If the price breaks higher, the market will probe the other upside levels including the 38.2% and 100 hour MA (blue line).

The underside of the trend line will be eyed.

The underside of the trend line will be eyed.

 

3 Comments

11 hours ago | October 24th, 2014 12:35:49 GMT

Forex Technical Analysis: AUDUSD falls but not enough. Reverses higher

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Per the prior post from yesterday (Watch the AUDUSD: Coiling like a snake), the AUDUSD has been coiling like a snake and the price fell in the Asian session, pushing the price below the lower trend lines on a way to new lows for the week at 87.18.  The range  for the week extended to 114 pips (still low) and it looked like the break was on. However, no other currency joined in the momentum party and the selling dried up. The failure of the break below the trend line and the subsequent move back above the broken levels including the 100 and 200 hour MA, the 50%, the trend lines and lows for the week, has changed the sentiment and we are seeing a break above the topside trend line (It really changed on the move back above the lower trend lines – you can see it in the test before the last move higher).

Can the momentum higher continue?  That is what traders will be looking for.  I wish it were not Friday….

AUDUSD broke lower. Failed. Breaking higher now.

AUDUSD broke lower. Failed. Breaking higher now.

1 Comment

12 hours ago | October 24th, 2014 12:31:46 GMT

US stock futures in the red over ebola fears. Data light for the rest of Friday

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We saw markets affected yesterday and overnight and traders are citing the ongoing ebola story in New York from yesterday as well as disappointing earnings from Amazon.

S&P futures have been down as low as 1932 and the Dow to 16521.

We’re a little light on data today with US new home sales the major point on the docket. Housing has gone back to showing some strength of late, though we’re expecting a fall in new sales to 0.470m from 0.504m prior.

preview 24 10 2014

US new home sales

head of homes we have Belgium business confidence, which some like to use as a bellwether for Europe’s fortunes. Unsurprisingly we’re looking at a further decline to -7.9 from -7.2 in September.

Lastly, just bear in mind that we have the stress test results from Europe this weekend and while the market hasn’t had any shocks from any of the big banks this week, it doesn’t mean that there might not be a little extra position squaring as Europe goes out the door, in case we get anything nasty.

 

3 Comments

12 hours ago | October 24th, 2014 12:00:37 GMT

UPS beats earnings forecasts buts sees a squeeze on margins

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  • EPS 31.32 vs $1.28 exp
  • Revenue $14.29bn vs $14.20bn exp
  • Global shipments up 6.9%

Another beat from one of the cogs of the US and global economy. On the downside revenue per package fell 1.5% but there was good news as international export packages were up 9.4% per day.

Shipping companies are a good demographic to watch as they give a key insight into how an economy is faring. If it’s doing well then more orders are taken and more goods are shipped more often. If an economy is not doing so well then orders drop as businesses keep inventories low and only order as they need.

It may be a little worry that revenue per package dropped but that can be reversed on lower input costs, and fuel makes up a huge part of shippers costs.

 

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