September 19th, 2014 17:03:01 GMT

USDCAD Technical Update: Lap completed and the Loonie takes the checkered flag


A full lap has been completed. ARRR… I want to take a VICTORY LAP (see )

The USDCAD tested topside channel trend line, moved down to the lower trend line and now has crossed the finish line by kissing the topside trend line again. I repeat.. you gotta love USDCAD to trade USDCAD (or be Canadian –  like Adam).  SEE PRIOR POST.

“Let’s do some driving, Lucius.”

PS This is not a solicitation to do a deal. We are in the last lap of the trading day

You have to be loonie to trade the loonie.

You have to be loonie to trade the loonie.


September 19th, 2014 16:20:40 GMT

Australian dollar breaks support, hits lowest since March


AUD/USD is at six-month low as risk trades being to sour.

The positive catalysts in a No vote, the Fed and the Alibaba IPO are out of the way and now the market is left asking — what’s next?

AUDUSD 10 minute chart

AUDUSD 10 minute chart

There is some support at the 0.8900 and 0.8891 level so the short-term downside might be limited. That also represents the measure target of the break of the March-August range.


September 19th, 2014 16:20:26 GMT

The beast is alive. Alibaba opens at 92.70, but can it be tamed


No  it is too soon to make a technical opinion on the stock.


I will ride the BABA if I can tame it first.  To do it, I need to define my risk

I will ride the BABA if I can tame it first. To do it, I need to define my risk

In reality this is the worst time to trade a stock.

Traders in the stock are driving  blind as risk can not be defined.

Sure analysts can make judgments on the value vs. the revenue. They can compare it to other companies in the genre. They can speculate that in 5 years it will likely double which is a pretty good return on an annualized basis.

But why did they value it at $68 and it is now at $92.70?  What if it goes back to the IPO price first?   What will traders/investors feel like then?  Will all the buyers at $95 and $98 feel good?  Probably not.

For me, the picture (i.e., chart)  where I can put a line on it, or a moving average of 100 or 200 hours. A picture that has some history of days, where I can see where buyers came in, or sellers sold.  Those are more important to me.  They allow me to tame the savage beast and judging from the first few minutes of trading, BABA is a beast.

I don’t mess with a beast unless I can tame it.


September 19th, 2014 16:16:24 GMT

Prices delicately poised as the week draws to a close


It’s been a roller coaster of a ride this week and as we approach the end of it the greenback looks wanted, but there’s some key levels still to be breached as we’ve been highlighting in this session

So, on that note I’m going to leave you in Adam and Greg’s masterful hands and wish you all a great week-end. Make sure you find time to turn off your screens and chill.

This welcome return of a degree of volatility ( it’s all relative when you’re an ol’ git like me!) won’t be going away anytime soon so if this week wasn’t one of your best, fret not. Just learn from any mistakes, dust yourself down and look for another opportunity, because there will be many more coming along

Thanks for all your great input and banter again this week and I hope we’ve helped navigate you through the jungle along the way.



September 19th, 2014 16:11:29 GMT

It’s International Talk Like a Pirate Day, here’s how to trade like a pirate


Today is  International Talk Like a Pirate Day. Here are some rules from the pirate code to help you trade like a pirate today.

Talk like a pirate day

It’s Talk like a pirate day, so trade like a pirate

Rule one, befriend others wisely.

  • Pick your sources well. Rumors are part of the landscape, be careful with who you trust. And you can always trust Forexlive.

The Right of Parlay

  • That’s a from the root “parler” which means to speak in French. You always have a voice in the comments section.

Equal Sharing of the Spoils

  • The FX market is so big that you don’t need the first one to spot the ship trade to get a share of the treasure

Whoever First Spotted a Treasure-Laden Ship Could Choose the Best Pistol for Themselves

  • Whoever is first gets the best trade, and also be sure to take a victory lap in the comments after a good trade

Any Man Who Falls Behind is Left Behind

  • The market isn’t a charity, don’t ask it for favors

Any Person Who Refuses to Serve Aboard a Pirate’s Ship Must Die

  • If you’re a trader every part of your lift must align with trading, you need balance

Trading for Products Fair and Square Mean the Seller Can Do as They Like, Including Resell at Profit

  • This one speaks for itself. Make money.

The Code calls for pirates to respect their fellows on the account. Knowingly targeting and sinking other pirate ships is strictly forbidden

  • This one speaks for itself. Don’t be a jerk to other traders, especially after they’ve made a bad trade

Killing a surrendered enemy is not allowed

  • Take this one literally — don’t kill anyone


September 19th, 2014 15:14:25 GMT

Technical Analysis Update: USDJPY squeezes a bit higher, but peak finds sellers


The earlier post asked for patience, and to watch the underside of the broken trend line (see post here)

The good technical news….

Are the patient sellers keeping the lid on it?

Are the patient sellers keeping the lid on it?

The not so good technical news..

The intraday sellers did not have not been as anxious as I hoped.

The intraday sellers did not have not been as anxious as I hoped.

The market is moving toward the London close so the patient short trade will need to see the price move lower to take on the weekend risk. Otherwise, will revisit the idea that a high is in place on Monday.



September 19th, 2014 15:13:15 GMT

Salmond calls it a day as Scotland’s First Minister


  • Scottish National Party leader announces he’s stepping down in November from leadership of the party and as Scotland’s First Minister

If at first you don’t succeed, give up

Just kidding all you Yes voters out there. I know he’s been championing the cause for years but nonetheless the timing of his announcement is a little strange when, despite losing the battle, he has certainly moved lines forward in the war.

I guess he thinks the movement needs new legs. We’ll find out when we get more detail


Salmond says

For me as leader my time is nearly over but for Scotland the campaign continues and the dream shall never die

I have no intention of retiring from Scottish politics – there are a large number of things you are able to do when you’re not first minister or leader of a political party

I had to make a judgement as to whether I’m best placed to take that opportunity forward – and I think others are.And the party I’m sure will make a wise choice and take party and country forward. The most important thing is not about First Minister

The Beeb has more here

Damn, those Russian bombers failing left me no choice . Freeeeeeeeeedom!

Damn, those Russian bombers failing left me no choice . Freeeeeeeeeedom!


September 19th, 2014 15:02:11 GMT

Talk the first trade in Alibaba is about 30 minutes away


The whole market is swept up in the Alibaba CNBC hype-fest at the moment.

The latest chatter on the opening price is $88-$94 — which is a cool 38% premium at the top end for those lucky enough to get the $68 IPO.

This has the potential to be an incredible intraday pump and dump. If it opens above $90, a $100 trade today is virtually in the bag.

With the fast money focused on this, there is a risk that broader risk takes a dip.


September 19th, 2014 14:57:22 GMT

Greenback grabbing the order of the day


Yes folks, if in doubt buy some USD seems to be the plat du jour today, and in effect it’s been on the menu all week

Dollar bulls casting a shadow again

Dollar bulls casting a shadow again

USDJPY back above 109.00 EURUSD has been down to 14mth lows around 1.2830 and my dear ol’ mate GBPUSD is testing bids at 1.6300 with more noted at 1.6285 before the 1.6245-50 support line

USDCHF is chewing its way through good offers between 0.9400-10, USDCAD bounced off the 1.0885 lows/bids and has now cleared out post-CPI gap offers into 1.0950 while AUDUSD has been down to test the bids around 0.8925-35 again.

It’s Friday but it’s hardly frantic. Just a little lively but providing good opportunity both sides of the price


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