14 hours ago | September 19th, 2014 13:42:16 GMT

S&P 500 hits record with Alibaba IPO underway


The S&P 500 opened 7 points higher to a record 2019.

There could be some skews today because of quadruple witching and because the SPY ETF goes ex-divided.

Technically stocks look good but if this IPO flops or once it’s done and the hype train dies off there’s the chance of a reversal. Tread carefully.

S&P 500 daily

S&P 500 daily


14 hours ago | September 19th, 2014 13:39:36 GMT

Jack Ma: My hero is Forest Gump


CNBC: Do you realize he is a fictional character.

You never know what you are going to get…..

Overall, he is saying the right things in his interview on CNBC.

My hero is Forest Gump, Jack Ma, Alibaba CEP

My hero is Forest Gump, Jack Ma, Alibaba CEP


14 hours ago | September 19th, 2014 13:27:56 GMT

UK fighter planes scrambled to intercept two Russian bombers


I’m sure it’s all a big misunderstanding unless Putin’s a bit peed off that Scotland didn’t secure independence and is taking matters into his own hands !

Livesquawk reporting

I can’t see it noted anywhere else at present so posting for info

Pound unmoved at present with GBPUSD 1.6356 EURGBP 0.7860

Blimey Squadron Leader. This independence lark is getting a bit serious eh?

Blimey Squadron Leader. This independence lark is getting a bit serious eh?


14 hours ago | September 19th, 2014 13:20:21 GMT

Here’s what’s going to happen with the Alibaba IPO


How much do you love CNBC right now if you got in on the Alibaba IPO?

The shares have been distributed to some 0.1%ers and giant hedge funds and now they have CNBC running a 24-hour hype machine so they can dump the stocks on the public and cash in on a one-day 20% gain — at least.

They bought the shares at $68 and I suspect the shares will open somewhere around $80 but who knows how the technology will work at the New York Stock Exchange after the Facebook fiasco proved that massive IPOs are tough to up and running. It will probably take until 10:30 am for the first trades.

Here’s the playbook: Whatever it opens at (so long as it runs smoothly) add $10 and that’s the time to sell.


14 hours ago | September 19th, 2014 13:16:29 GMT

Technical Analysis USDJPY: Watching for sellers on rallies today


USDJPY showing some signs of taking a break after yet another 6 year high.

The USDJPY moved to new 6 year highs over night.   The price peaked against the underside of the broken trend line at the 109.448 level.  This line was outlined first a few days ago in this POST.  Sometimes, these old solid trend lines come back “into play”- especially in a market that is searching for a level to lean against, and there is not much there.  This line was good support in early September before a small correction led to the break.  Today the sellers used it to define and limit risk. Nice. Nice.

The price decline as taken the pair below the 109.09 level. This too was a strong trend line in early September (see blue circles). Recently, the price has consolidated around the level (well yesterday). Today, the price move above, tried to stay above, but broke back below. That line should now be a resistance area on rallies today for patient sellers. I don’t expect the price to move above this area in the near term (risk level).

USDJPY corrects lower after making yet another 6 year high.

USDJPY corrects lower after making yet another 6 year high.

Looking at the 5 minute chart below, the price shot up in the Asian session and has been rotating lower since that move found the sellers. The price is back below the 100 and 200 bar MAs. Those MA are converged and come in between the 38.2-50% of the move down today. This area should find patient sellers if there is a correction higher today.  The 109.09 level should be the stop on sales in this area. Targets below would be the 108.436, the 108.124 and the 100 hour MA (blue line) which is rising but is at 107.86 ( do not expect to get all the way there though today).

The trend has been up in this pair and the targets talked about at the 110.00 to 110.67 area are still a possibility going forward (2008 high is at 110.67 and 110.00 is just 110.00). However, looking at the high reached today, and the subsequent sell off, it could be time for a breather (let the 100 hour MA catch up).   Be patient though. It is a Friday.

The 108.91-109.01 should be a sell zone on rallies today.

The 108.91-109.01 should be a sell zone on rallies today.


14 hours ago | September 19th, 2014 13:05:38 GMT

More from the orderboard 19 Sept


Here’s a quick round up of my usual others

USDCHF currently 0.9383 on the rise amidst some cross-play action

Sellers  0.9400-10 0.9420-30 0.9455-65 0.9480 0.9500

Buyers  0.9330-40 0.9320 0.9300 0.9280-85 0.9240 0.9200-10


EURCHF currently steady around  1.2070 and still being capped on the rallies. Bids looming though again

Sellers 1.2085 1.2100-10 1.2125 1.2135 1.2150 1.2165 1.2185 1.2200

Buyers  1.2060 1.2040-50 1.2020 1.2000 (SNB CHF cap)


USDCAD currently 1.0904 having just tested the bids at 1.0885 after the CPI release

Sellers  1.0950-60 1.0980 1.1000 1.1025-35 1.1050 1.1075-85 1.1100 1.1125 1.1140-50

Buyers  1.080-85 1.0850 1.0830 1.0800 1.0785


NZDUSD currently 0.8158 having failed to hold above 0.8200

Sellers  0.8175 0.8200 0.8230 0.8250

Buyers  0.8125 0.8100 0.8085 0.8065 0.8050


14 hours ago | September 19th, 2014 13:01:27 GMT

Belgian consumer confidence remains at -11


Belgian consumer confidence remained at -11 in September, the same as August.

  • Outlook -6 vs -5 and at the lowest level since July 2013
  • Concerns about unemployment +33 vs +332

It’s a good leading indicator for IFO.


15 hours ago | September 19th, 2014 12:52:21 GMT

Talk of ECB sovereign QE a new theme


The market didn’t really get a chance to digest the weak take-up on the TLTRO because of all the Fed and referendum talk but it’s quickly coming back into focus.

Barclays is out with a note to clients saying an ECB sovereign QE program is now its baseline — most likely by Q1 2015.

They say Draghi’s stated intention to expand its balance sheet 1 trillion euros is unlikely to be achieved via TLTROs, ABS and covered bond purchases. They also say the risk of a too-long period of low inflation is worse than the ECB projections imply and that growth risks are rising.

For me, the December TLTRO is now huge. Some banks said they’re waiting until after the stress tests to get involved. If the Dec TLTRO headline cross and there isn’t a much stronger takeup, the market will immediately price in QE and the euro will plunge.


Draghi thinking about his 1T euro balance sheet


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