January 30th, 2015 19:02:29 GMT.

Crude oil surges higher…

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Crude oil is trading higher after breaking above the 200 hour MA at 45.84 . The price has scooted to a high of of 46.83 which is the highest level since January 23rd.  I am not sure the move higher can be all that trusted given liquidity conditions in the market, but it has caught the attention of the market. Of course a 5% move is a lot different at $46 vs $100.

Crude oil has shot higher.

Crude oil has shot higher.

Has the USDCAD reacted to the recent push higher?

USDCAD reaction is minor to the oil spike higher.

USDCAD reaction is minor to the oil spike higher.

The USDCAD rallied higher on the weaker Canadian GDP earlier today. The price then sold off sharply as oil did start to turn around. Over the last few hours or so, the USDCAD price has moved higher, and not really reacted to the even higher oil prices – at least for now.

2015-01-30T19:02:29+0000

January 30th, 2015 18:28:10 GMT.

Feds Fisher: Fed at tipping point. Preparing to raise rates

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He also comments:

  • His preference would be to raise rates earlier, but notes that he is in the minority
  • When Fed decides to raise rates, they need to signal ahead of time
  • Would not have dissented on this week’s statement
  • ECB’s quantitative easing is positive
  • Mentioned of international developments points to positive as well as negative events
  • Says a stronger dollar, ‘not the end of the world’
  • Stronger dollar reflects high US productivity
  • Business contacts say seeing strong pickup in late December and into January

Richard Fisher (as opposed to Stanley Fischer) is the President of the Dallas Fed. He is not a voting member but is one of the most hawkish of Fed officials. The USDJPY is up around 10 or so pips. The EURUSD is little changed.

 

2015-01-30T18:28:10+0000

January 30th, 2015 17:38:52 GMT.

US stocks trying to reclaim the GDP lost ground

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The S&P dipped to the 2000 level after the data but has slowly been clawing that and it’s now just down 7 at 2014. The Dow is down 68 points at 17348 but had been down to 17240. The Nasdaq is recovering from 4650 and getting close to the opening price near 4700.

European stocks closed with losses but nothing too much to worry about. Here’s the day and weekly numbers (last two columns)

European stocks 30 01 2015

European stocks 30 01 2015

European bonds are trading mixed but there’s been another blowout on Greek yields

European bonds 30 01 2015

European bonds 30 01 2015

That’s me done for the week and I hope you all have a great weekend wherever you are.

2015-01-30T17:38:52+0000

January 30th, 2015 17:37:38 GMT.

Gold stalls at 100 hour MA, but you gotta like the bounce yesterday

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Yesterday, it was the 200 day MA (green line) on the downside (see:Gold tumbles but moves toward 200 day MA and retracement support).

Gold held 200 day MA yesterday...

Gold held 200 day MA yesterday…

Today, gold has found sellers against the 100 hour MA (see blue line in the chart below).

Activity should be slowing, with potential for position squaring to take over. However, iIf the level does hold, the the technical lines in the sand will be drawn for the market next week.

..Today the 100 hour MA found sellers on the test.

..Today the 100 hour MA found sellers on the test.

The longer term bias? I have to favor the upside.  Technically, the price in January (see chart below)

  • Broke above the 100 day MA (blue line) and trend line.
  • Broke above the 20o day MA (green line) and a higher trend line
  • The correction fell down to the 200 day MA and 38.2% of the move up from the December low
  • The price bounced off that support, keeping the buyers in control.

To continue the move higher going forward, look for the 100 hour MA and 200 hour MA (blue and green lines above) will need to be broken.

The price action is saying buyers remain in control.

The price action is saying buyers remain in control.

2015-01-30T17:37:38+0000

January 30th, 2015 16:37:41 GMT.

Forex technical trading: EURJPY testing recent lows

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As the EURUSD wanders lower and so to does the USDJPY, that spells down for the EURJPY.

EURJPY trades at the low support area for the week.

EURJPY trades at the low support area for the week.

This pair – like the EURUSD – traded at the week’s low in the early hours of Monday’s trade.  The rest of the week, has seen the price traded up and down between a high of 134.34 and a low of 132.37. The price is currently testing that low support area. A break should solicit more momentum to the downside.   Much will be dependent on whether the USDJPY can break and scoot below the 117.17 level.   So far, the bell rang, the buyers salivated and have taken the USDJPY back to the 117.40 from 117.28.   EURJPY has also bounced a little as well.  The markets are moving toward the Friday afternoon soon. So risks will be dependent on the flows as traders consider the gap risk over the weekend.

2015-01-30T16:37:41+0000

January 30th, 2015 16:21:01 GMT.

USDJPY into support again, what’s next

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The USDJPY is moving into that support floor area that has attracted the buyers. The pair got  boost after GDP from Bullard comments.

USDJPY can't stay away.  Tries support once again.

USDJPY can’t stay away. Tries support once again.

The move lower is also testing the lower trend line on the 5 minute chart once again today.   The buyers/profit takers should try and stick a toe in the water again.

How many times can it go to the well and do the same thing?

As many times as it can until the levels break, and it stays below the break.  Trend line on the 5 minute is at 117.30. The 117.17 is the low bottom over the last 9-10 days.

USDJPY testing trend line on 5 minute chart too.

USDJPY testing trend line on 5 minute chart too.

2015-01-30T16:21:01+0000

January 30th, 2015 16:06:30 GMT.

EUR/CHF slammed lower by 95 pips

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Swiss pairs getting hit elsewhere too

There’s no headlines that I can point to and we’re already halfway back up in them

Lots of talk that month end is playing a part and it can sometimes have a bigger effect in the new year, as much as it did in December when there was a lot of squaring up. New positions and re-establishing of positions happened when markets came back fully, and now the books are all being valued up.

2015-01-30T16:06:30+0000

January 30th, 2015 16:00:42 GMT.

Forex technical trading: EURUSD doing another one of those low momentum dips, but trying

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The EURUSD dipped below the 100 hour MA yesterday (blue line in the chart below) and wandered a little lower but not by much.   Currently, the price is dipping below the 100 hour MA once again, and trying to ignite some additional selling momentum. The range for the day is still a bit light compared to recent history (less than 80 pips today).    You normally get a little more reaction than what we are seeing.

What’s up?

Well, the pair seems to be suffering from a bloated position.  Perhaps a case of all the news is out, or month end/week end.  The GDP was ok, but it was less than expectations and with 0.82% contribution from inventories, that  may not be a good recipe for going forward.   Chicago PMI was nice at 59.4  but down from 64.5 in October. Michigan consumer sentiment, not bad. Meanwhile EU inflation lower and unemployment rate down from 11.5% but 11.4% is not something to be proud of.  Greek situation comments are volleyed back and forth. Stocks are down (not Amazon though – although down from highs).  Gold is back up after testing the 20o day MA yesterday (see: Gold tumbles but moves toward 200 day MA and retracement support). Oil rebounds off new lows yesterday.

EURUSD drifts lower

EURUSD drifts lower

 

What are the charts saying for the EURUSD?

From a technical perspective, the price this week moved above the “line in the sand” outlined in last weekends video report (Video: What’s next for the euro) at the 1.1209 level  during Monday’s trade.   Apart from those  first 9-10 hours of the trading, the EURUSD  traded above that level (still remains a key level going forward) giving the pair a corrective/consolidation feel.

At the weeks highs,however,  the 50% of the move down from last weeks high and the 1.1372 level (November 2003 low) acted as resistance. There was a momentum move above those levels on Tuesday, but it was quickly reversed.

With the price currently  trading between the two extremes the battle lines are being drawn for next week’s trading (assuming activity remains lightish).   We are making new lows now and testing a trend line connecting most recent lows. Little steps. If the price can get below that trend line at 1.1287 currently, there is room to roam with the low yesterday at 1.1260 and the low from Tuesday at 1.1222 a distant possibility.  Can we keep the price below the 100 hour MA? That  is close risk for traders not keen on weekend risk.

Breaking now as I type, so maybe there is more to come before the trading week is done.

 

2015-01-30T16:00:42+0000

January 30th, 2015 15:45:55 GMT.

Pound heads below 1.5000

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Looks like my old quid isn’t quite finished for the week and heads down under 1.5000

Whether there’s enough in the tank to see a big break remains to be seen but as I highlighted last time, the path is still seemingly down for Her Majesty’s money

GBP/USD H4 chart 30 01 2015

GBP/USD H4 chart 30 01 2015

Update. We’ve bounced back to 1.5010 and given the time I’m thinking there may be some last minute end of months flows that is coming ahead of the fix. on the weekly chart the candle is looking very gravestone-ish

Boom! The clock strikes 4pm here in London and EUR/GBP dumps to 0.7508 dragging the euro to 1.1279, Mirrowing the late low yesterday. Cable trades 1.5023

2015-01-30T15:45:55+0000

January 30th, 2015 15:32:03 GMT.

It’s no wonder most of Japan sits on their cash as fraud cases rise to the highest ever

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2014 saw Japanese people get pilfered for ¥56bn, the most since records began. The “special fraud” cases include the elderly being swindled by people impersonating their children. The National Police Agency said there were 10,540 cases involving OAP’s last year 

Must be something in the water over there that just makes you want to be a crook

Ryan Japan

Crooks in Japan

2015-01-30T15:32:03+0000
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