Crude oil is trading higher after breaking above the 200 hour MA at 45.84 . The price has scooted to a high of of 46.83 which is the highest level since January 23rd. I am not sure the move higher can be all that trusted given liquidity conditions in the market, but it has caught the attention of the market. Of course a 5% move is a lot different at $46 vs $100.
Crude oil has shot higher.
Has the USDCAD reacted to the recent push higher?
USDCAD reaction is minor to the oil spike higher.
The USDCAD rallied higher on the weaker Canadian GDP earlier today. The price then sold off sharply as oil did start to turn around. Over the last few hours or so, the USDCAD price has moved higher, and not really reacted to the even higher oil prices – at least for now.
His preference would be to raise rates earlier, but notes that he is in the minority
When Fed decides to raise rates, they need to signal ahead of time
Would not have dissented on this week’s statement
ECB’s quantitative easing is positive
Mentioned of international developments points to positive as well as negative events
Says a stronger dollar, ‘not the end of the world’
Stronger dollar reflects high US productivity
Business contacts say seeing strong pickup in late December and into January
Richard Fisher (as opposed to Stanley Fischer) is the President of the Dallas Fed. He is not a voting member but is one of the most hawkish of Fed officials. The USDJPY is up around 10 or so pips. The EURUSD is little changed.
The S&P dipped to the 2000 level after the data but has slowly been clawing that and it’s now just down 7 at 2014. The Dow is down 68 points at 17348 but had been down to 17240. The Nasdaq is recovering from 4650 and getting close to the opening price near 4700.
European stocks closed with losses but nothing too much to worry about. Here’s the day and weekly numbers (last two columns)
European stocks 30 01 2015
European bonds are trading mixed but there’s been another blowout on Greek yields
European bonds 30 01 2015
That’s me done for the week and I hope you all have a great weekend wherever you are.
As the EURUSD wanders lower and so to does the USDJPY, that spells down for the EURJPY.
EURJPY trades at the low support area for the week.
This pair – like the EURUSD – traded at the week’s low in the early hours of Monday’s trade. The rest of the week, has seen the price traded up and down between a high of 134.34 and a low of 132.37. The price is currently testing that low support area. A break should solicit more momentum to the downside. Much will be dependent on whether the USDJPY can break and scoot below the 117.17 level. So far, the bell rang, the buyers salivated and have taken the USDJPY back to the 117.40 from 117.28. EURJPY has also bounced a little as well. The markets are moving toward the Friday afternoon soon. So risks will be dependent on the flows as traders consider the gap risk over the weekend.
There’s no headlines that I can point to and we’re already halfway back up in them
Lots of talk that month end is playing a part and it can sometimes have a bigger effect in the new year, as much as it did in December when there was a lot of squaring up. New positions and re-establishing of positions happened when markets came back fully, and now the books are all being valued up.
The EURUSD dipped below the 100 hour MA yesterday (blue line in the chart below) and wandered a little lower but not by much. Currently, the price is dipping below the 100 hour MA once again, and trying to ignite some additional selling momentum. The range for the day is still a bit light compared to recent history (less than 80 pips today). You normally get a little more reaction than what we are seeing.
Well, the pair seems to be suffering from a bloated position. Perhaps a case of all the news is out, or month end/week end. The GDP was ok, but it was less than expectations and with 0.82% contribution from inventories, that may not be a good recipe for going forward. Chicago PMI was nice at 59.4 but down from 64.5 in October. Michigan consumer sentiment, not bad. Meanwhile EU inflation lower and unemployment rate down from 11.5% but 11.4% is not something to be proud of. Greek situation comments are volleyed back and forth. Stocks are down (not Amazon though – although down from highs). Gold is back up after testing the 20o day MA yesterday (see: Gold tumbles but moves toward 200 day MA and retracement support). Oil rebounds off new lows yesterday.
EURUSD drifts lower
What are the charts saying for the EURUSD?
From a technical perspective, the price this week moved above the “line in the sand” outlined in last weekends video report (Video: What’s next for the euro) at the 1.1209 level during Monday’s trade. Apart from those first 9-10 hours of the trading, the EURUSD traded above that level (still remains a key level going forward) giving the pair a corrective/consolidation feel.
At the weeks highs,however, the 50% of the move down from last weeks high and the 1.1372 level (November 2003 low) acted as resistance. There was a momentum move above those levels on Tuesday, but it was quickly reversed.
With the price currently trading between the two extremes the battle lines are being drawn for next week’s trading (assuming activity remains lightish). We are making new lows now and testing a trend line connecting most recent lows. Little steps. If the price can get below that trend line at 1.1287 currently, there is room to roam with the low yesterday at 1.1260 and the low from Tuesday at 1.1222 a distant possibility. Can we keep the price below the 100 hour MA? That is close risk for traders not keen on weekend risk.
Breaking now as I type, so maybe there is more to come before the trading week is done.
Looks like my old quid isn’t quite finished for the week and heads down under 1.5000
Whether there’s enough in the tank to see a big break remains to be seen but as I highlighted last time, the path is still seemingly down for Her Majesty’s money
GBP/USD H4 chart 30 01 2015
Update. We’ve bounced back to 1.5010 and given the time I’m thinking there may be some last minute end of months flows that is coming ahead of the fix. on the weekly chart the candle is looking very gravestone-ish
Boom! The clock strikes 4pm here in London and EUR/GBP dumps to 0.7508 dragging the euro to 1.1279, Mirrowing the late low yesterday. Cable trades 1.5023
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