11 hours ago | September 22nd, 2014 13:02:55 GMT

GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Rebounds higher in forex trading


The GBPUSD took it on the chin on Friday “after the fact” from the Scotland Referendum (the technicals showed persistent weakness too).

The pair has rebounded in trading today, moving back above the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below – bullish), but remains below the broken trend line from last week’s trading  at the 1.6370 (see this weeks VIDEO PREVIEW for the GBPUSD HERE).

Technical Analysis: GBPUSD finding support on the chart against the 100 hour MA at 1.6323 and the 50% retracement level at 1.62867

Technical Analysis: GBPUSD finding support on the chart against the 100 hour MA at 1.6323 and the 50% retracement level at 1.62867

As NY traders enter for the day, the pair is finding support against the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above). That level comes in at the 1.6323 level currently.  There is additional support against the 50% level at the 1.62867.  Bulls need to see the price stay above these levels to keep the buyers in control.  A break below and the mood may once again turn sour for the buyers.  ON the topside, get above the  broken 38.2% at the 1.63424 level and then the broken trend line at 1.6370, and the buyers will be feeling a bit better.

Bulls trying to show their support again today.  We will see if the follow through can continue.


11 hours ago | September 22nd, 2014 12:54:30 GMT

We didn’t start the fire


Literally. It wasn’t us.

ForexLive’s Montreal office tower, or maybe I should say “office” … okay “desk” caught on fire in a four-alarm fire on the weekend.

A fire started in the top floors of the building but fortunately we’re located on the main floor and the 125 firefighters who responded were able to get it under control.

ForexLive on Fire

ForexLive on fire

The power is out in the building but like a good trader we have a backup plan and there shouldn’t be a hiccup.


11 hours ago | September 22nd, 2014 12:27:33 GMT

Draghi and Dudley are the highlights in US trading


The economic calendar starts off the US trading week with some comments from central bankers.

Draghi speaks at 1300 GMT at an EU parliament in Brussels. For a preview of what he might say, check out what Noyer and Coeure said on the weekend.

The other main events are an hour later at 1400 GMT with US existing home sales and Eurozone advance consumer confidence for September. Five minutes later, New York Fed President Bill Dudley will have comments at a Bloomberg event.

At 1640 GMT, Bank of Canada #2 Wilkins speaks in Toronto. The comments are embargoed so there could be something market moving but it’s very rare for anyone but the BOC Governor to signal any changes in policy.


12 hours ago | September 22nd, 2014 12:02:32 GMT

CURRENCY: The strongest and weakest currencies in trading today


The strongest currency in trading today is the GBP. On Friday, the GBP initially rallied strongly on the back of the rejection of the Scotland Referendum, but later fell back down – erasing the gains. Today the currency is stronger against all the major pairs but is also off the highs.

The weakest currency is the AUD. The AUD is trading at the 7 month low as concerns about China and lower commodity prices are weighing on the currency.  The CAD and NZD are also being impacted by the trend in commodities as both are also down on the day.

GBP is the strongest currency. The AUD is the weakest in trading today

GBP is the strongest currency. The AUD is the weakest in trading today

The greenback is mixed – rising against the commodity complex but down slightly versus the other major currencies (down the most against the GBP).

The EUR is only down against the GBP.  ECBs Draghi speaks at 9 AM ET and his comments will be eyed in the aftermath of what was a disappointing TLTRO initiative last week.



12 hours ago | September 22nd, 2014 11:52:41 GMT

Germany’s Merkel says French reforms are aimed at competitiveness


  • growth and consolidation strategies can work side-by-side
  • Germany-France to meet challenges together
  • will jointly co-operate to achieve confidence in the the euro

Merkel having lunch with French PM Valls which Eamonn previewed here

EURUSD still pinned around 1.2850 as we wait for Draghi in an hour

"Go on Manuel, tell me how those reforms are coming along"

“Go on Manuel, tell me how those reforms are coming along”


12 hours ago | September 22nd, 2014 11:40:59 GMT

ECB’s Praet says euro fall is due to economic fundamentals


  • exchange rate affects Eurozone inflation

Wow, the boy really is on a roll eh ?

  • the perception that the ECB  ” has a willingness to talk down the euro ” is incorrect

Of course it is. Not

Can I have my lunch now please?

Can I have my lunch now please?

  • the US has been surprised by spillover effects



13 hours ago | September 22nd, 2014 11:13:08 GMT

ECB’s Praet says the US shapes global monetary policy


  • other central banks have to take into account US decisions

Especially when you’re on the back foot my friend, but hey when in doubt blame someone else

  • ECB fwd guidance helped isolation from spillovers

Not sure what he’s referring to there but I’d say it’s questionable regardless. No further detail at present

ECB’d exec board member Peter Praet speaking in Berlin

The ECB was very conscious about the potential shift in US monetary policy and the potential divergences between the US and the euro area

That’s why we started to communicate very much that the policy path is absolutely  not the same

I think that was berleedin’ obvious


  • The IMF should be more independent from politics

And there was us mere mortals thinking that they were.

Anyone got a razor?

Anyone got a razor?


13 hours ago | September 22nd, 2014 11:04:09 GMT

ForexLive European morning wrap: Ouch on the Aussie as commodity ccys feel the heat


Forex trading headlines from the European morning session 22 Sept



In a session short on data and rhetoric and waiting for Draghi at 13.300 GMT it’s been left to commodity currencies to provide the action this morning to kick off the week, and it’s been a lively session.

The o/n USD sell-off was already showing signs of running out of steam with cable capping at 1.6366 and EURUSD at 1.2868 with USDJPY once again finding buyers into 108.60 but it was the AUD that set things going on reports by Roubini Economics that they saw AUDUSD down below 0.7500.

Whether that was the cause or the straw that broke the kangaroo’s bounce is not clear as metal prices were on the back foot but it showed the fragility of the Aussie $ right now and we saw a quick dip from 0.8930 to 0.8905 as leveraged acccounts sold heavily. It wasn’t long before we saw another wave of selling which triggered stops all the way down to 0.8865  where it ran into another layer of bids.

AUD pairs all suffered a similar fate apart from AUDCAD which was somewhat blunted by USDCAD rising from 1.0930 to test 1.1000 again as oil prices fell in early morning trading while the kiwi gave up its post-election gains with NZDUSD back down to test 0.8100

On the major pairs it was all a bit more civilised with cable drifting back to 1.6328 and EURUSD finding itself mostly pinned around 1.2850 ahead of Draghi and a large option expiry today. USDJPY clawed its way back above 109.00 then spent its time camped around 109.05 while USDCHF had another look at 0.9400 before stepping back.

A strange and somewhat fragmented session but one that sets us up nicely for more volatility today and into the week.


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