10 hours ago | November 25th, 2014 10:06:00 GMT

BOE’s Forbes says full capacity could be reached before forecast


  • sees risk of slightly stronger global economy
  • interest rate rises would be gradual


  • MPC inflation forecasts are plausible
  • upside risks to inflation profile


  • more concerned about downside inflation risk
  • UK faces risk from external environment

Takes two to make a market but doves still outweigh the hawks

10 hours ago | November 25th, 2014 10:03:53 GMT

Bundesbank says low interest rates spur risky investor behaviour


BUBA releasing their annual financial stability review

  • better bank mortgage data would reduce risks
  • German mortgage lending is mostly cautious, safe
  • German banks should prepare for end of calm period, risk big property loss if economy sags
  • home prices in top 7 German cities overvalued by 25%

Full review here

10 hours ago | November 25th, 2014 10:02:08 GMT

More from the orderboards 25 Nov


USDCHF currently 0.9667near session lows as EURUSD grinds higher again

Sellers  0.9700-10 0.9730 0.9750 0.9785 0.9800

Buyers  0.9660 0.9630 0.9600 0.9580 0.9565 0.9550


EURCHF currently 1.2023 again and still unable to hold above 1.2030

Sellers 1.2035-40 1.2050 1.2065 1.2075-85 1.2100 1.2125-35 1.2150

Buyers  1.2010 1.2000 (SNB cap- stops below 1.1990) 1.1970 1.1950


USDCAD currently 1.1305 and finding support again

Sellers   1.1330 1.1350 1.1380 114.00-10

Buyers 1.1275 1.1250 1.1200-10 1.1185 1.1150 1.1135 1.1100-10


NZDUSD currently 0.7794

Sellers   0.7825 0.7855-65 0.7900-10 0.7925 0.7950

Buyers 0.7775 0.7750 0.7730 0.7700-10

10 hours ago | November 25th, 2014 09:53:49 GMT

Lowe says the RBA can still lower interest rates if they need to


  • monetary transmission mechanism still works in Australia

AUDUSD posts fresh lows of 0.8523 but more bids noted into 0.8500

  • real exchange rate in Australia is still quite high
  • 20 years plus of growth has made Australia a bit relaxed

It’s in their very fabric surely?!

  • hopes AUD will stay structurally higher than it was in the 1990s

10 hours ago | November 25th, 2014 09:47:29 GMT

Coming up at the top of the hour – Carney & Co face the Treasury Select Committee


At 10.00 GMT Governor Carney, Sir Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor- Financial Stability, Ian McCafferty and Kristin Forbes, Monetary Policy Committee Members give evidence on the November Inflation Report to this robust parliamentary committee

Recent appearances have been less than comfortable for the BOE boys and girls and we can expect them to get a decent grilling this time too in the wake of recent data, inflation and interest rate forecasts

McCafferty is one of the hawks currently voting for an immediate 0.25% rate hike

Read the latest BOE inflation report here but the highlights, all rather dovish were:

  •  2015 CPI cut to 1.4% vs 1.7%
  • inflation rate likely to fall below 1% within 6 months but sees 2% target at end of 3-year forecast period
  • 2015 GDP forecast cut to 2.9% vs 3.1%
  • 2016 GDP cut to 2.6% vs 2.8%

We’ll bring you all the headlines and analysis but you can watch it live here

Carney- is the charmer losing his appeal?

Carney- is the charmer losing his appeal?

10 hours ago | November 25th, 2014 09:40:49 GMT

October UK mortgage lending hits the lowest since January 2014


  • Net mortgage lending 861m vs 898m in Sep
  • Mortgage approval 37,076 vs 39,127 in Sep. Lowest since May 2013.  -16% y/y
  • Credit card lending +307m vs -289m in Sep, biggest rise since June 2013

The new mortgage rules are definitely having a marked effect on mortgage borrowing and the jump in credit card lending needs to be monitored to make sure we’re not fueling the recovery totally on debt.

The figures are from the BBA

11 hours ago | November 25th, 2014 09:21:31 GMT

EURJPY orders 25 Nov


Currently 146.80 and finding support in the dips with USDJPY back above 118.00

Sellers  147.00 147.20-25 147.40-50 148.00 148.40-50

Buyers 146.25-30 146.00 145.85 145.50 145.25-30 145.00

11 hours ago | November 25th, 2014 09:06:01 GMT

RBA’s Lowe says lower AUD is helpful and sees a further drop over time


  • concerns over high wage costs in Australia are concerns about the Aussie $
  • reasons to be confident in Australian economy, cites population growth,abundant resources and close ties to Asia

Not sure if those last reasons from the RBA’s dep gov are that solid for economic growth

AUDUSD down to 0.8530 and 4-year lows on the headlines but back to 0.8545

  • must ensure uncertainty doesn’t mutate to pessimism
  • resource exports at 12% of GDP, ratio could rise further
  • Australian economy clearly has come challenges ahead

AUDUSD back down to 0.8537 AUDJPY 100.82

RBA's Lowe - room for further AUD falls

RBA’s Lowe – room for further AUD falls

11 hours ago | November 25th, 2014 09:01:58 GMT



Currently 0.8560 still on the back foot but finding a few bids around 0.8550

Sellers  0.8580-85 0.8600 0.8625-30 0.8680 0.8700-10 0.8725-30 0.8750

Buyers  0.8540-50 0.8525-30 0.8500-10 0.8485 0.8450

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