13 hours ago | July 9th, 2014 22:30:05 GMT

New Zealand – Business NZ manufacturing PMI for June: 53.3 (prior was 52.6)


Business NZ manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for June, higher to 53.3

  • prior was 52.6, revised from 52.7
  • manufacturing sector now being in expansion for 21 consecutive months
  • Four of the five seasonally adjusted main diffusion indices were in expansion during June
  • Production (55.9)  0.8 points higher than May.
  • New orders (50.9) continued to fall, dipping another 0.4 points and at its lowest level since December 2012
  • Employment (52.9) also dipped, down 0.6 points from May
  • Finished stocks (49.7) fell 2.6 points
  • Deliveries (55.1) rose 3.6 points – highest result since March.

BusinessNZ’s executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard:

  • “Overall production levels remain healthy, and have been very consistent for the last three months.
  • Employment levels continue to show more people entering the sector, while the largest proportion of comments received are still positive.
  • As mentioned last month, the fundamentals of both the PMI and other indicators of the economy still point to positive activity. However, the continued strength of the New Zealand dollar, as well as new order levels continuing to fall, mean there are elements of the sector that need to be watched closely in the months ahead.”


While the OMi continues to expand, we got a potentially conflicting signal from the ANZ Truckometer a little earlier, it fell again; ANZ think NZ will see an “easing in quarterly growth in Q2″, but did go on to say that “the Light Traffic Index then indicates a potential rebound”. If the trend is your friend in economic growth then I’ll be erring on the side of continued good growth in NZ and continued RBNZ hikes … and the uptrend continuing for the NZ dollar (but aware that we are approaching Ausgust 2011 highs).


13 hours ago | July 9th, 2014 22:00:05 GMT

ANZ Truckometer for June: -0.8% (vs. prior -2.0%)


ANZ Truckometer for June,  -0.8%

  • Heavy Index -0.8% in June (sa)
  • Light Index -0.7% in June (sa)

NZD up a few points after the data. Not a lot in it, though. It hit new highs for the rally in the overnight, August 2011 highs are in sight.

From ANZ:

  • The ANZ Heavy Traffic Index fell a further 0.8% in June (sa). The index suggests quarterly GDP growth in Q2 may be sharply lower than the 1% per quarter rate enjoyed since mid-2013.
  • The ANZ Light Traffic Index leads GD P by 6 months. It fell 0.7% in June (sa), after rising in the three preceding months.
  • suggest economic momentum will roll on in the second half of the year but with some bumps along the way. Both indexes are consistent with an easing in quarterly growth in Q2 but the Light Traffic Index then indicates a potential rebound.

ANZ truckometer graphs 10 July 2014


Next up from NZ we get Business NZ manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for June, prior was 52.7



14 hours ago | July 9th, 2014 21:14:50 GMT

Economic data due from Australia


There will be much focus on the Aussie data today – the June employment report. Due at 0130GMT:

  • Employment Change for June: expected 12.0K, prior -4.8K
  • Unemployment Rate June: expected 5.9%, prior 5.8%
  • Full Time Employment Change June, prior was +22.2K
  • Part Time Employment Change June, prior was -27.0K
  • Participation Rate June, expected is 64.6%, prior was 64.6%

This will be closely watched. While the market has the next RBA meeting in August already inked in a ‘no change’ meeting, the RBA will be wanting to see continued trend employment growth (employment is one of their mandates). With the AUD creeping back higher after last week’s awful trade balance and Glenn Stevens follow-up jawboning lower, today’s report will impact on the rate.

Last month’s report was a bit of a mixed bag … with a fall in employment but a big jump in full-time employment. In the past we’ve seen solid gains in employment accompanied by falls in full-time employment and the response has been a predictable “but the jobs are only part-time!” … But last month’s result wasn’t accompanied by a chorus of “the jobs’s are full-time!”, which is not surprising. Negativity bias?


14 hours ago | July 9th, 2014 20:59:06 GMT

Economic data due from Japan


Due at 2350GMT:

  • Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) (this is a PPI measure) m/m for June: expected +0.1%, prior +0.3%
  • Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) y/y for June: expected +4.5%, prior +4.4%
  • May Tertiary Industry index m/m, expected is +1.7%, prior was -5.4%
  • May Machine Orders m/m, expected is +0.7%, prior -9.1% (note I posted on yesterday’s Machine Tool Orders, here … the “Machine orders” due today is a different data point, from a different source – the Cabinet Office)
  • May Machine Orders y/y, expected is +10.1%, prior +17.6%

In addition, since its Thursday, we also get the weekly International Transactions in Securities data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance, for the week ended July 4

  • Japan Buying Foreign Bonds
  • Japan Buying Foreign Stocks
  • Foreign Buying Japan Bonds
  • Foreign Buying Japan Stocks
  • (prior week is here)


15 hours ago | July 9th, 2014 20:32:02 GMT

ForexLive Americas wrap: Fed minutes sting the USD bulls again


Forex headlines for July 9, 2014:

The US dollar bulls were begging for a hawkish headline to appear in the FOMC minutes. They tried to make believe with the lines on ending reinvestment or finishing the taper in October but there was nothing that wasn’t expected and there was no talk of rate hikes. Still, the dollar bulls mounted a charge and USD/JPY jumped a dozen pips to 101.86 but it was short lived as it later crashed down to 101.55.

It was a similar story across the board. The US dollar climbed in the lead-up to the Minutes on hopes for hawks but after a brief fall in EUR/USD down to 1.3612 it reversed and the pair eventually hit a session high at 1.3649.

Once again cable proved impossible to keep down as it also reversed up to 1.7160 from 1.7110. The sticky 1.7140/45 are of resistance offered some tough spots for sellers but cable overcomes all.

Similar story for NZD/USD, which has been the most-unstoppable force in FX. The risk aversion earlier this week did almost nothing to stop it and the 2011 high of 0.8862 looms ever larger. We close about 40 pips away.

Oil fell for the ninth consecutive session and was down whether the US dollar was up or down. It was a steady slide but we’re getting closer to the June low of $101.60 so some profit taking on shorts could kick in soon.


15 hours ago | July 9th, 2014 20:31:28 GMT

Economic data due from New Zealand today (spolier alert … Truckometer!)


First cab off the rank/truck out of the dock from New Zealand today, due at 2200GMT is

ANZ Truckometer for June, prior was a dip in this index of -2.1%

Following at 2230GMT is Business NZ manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for June, prior was 52.7

of the two, it’s the PMI that will be most watched for immediate impact. markets are gathering data to assess the likelihood of a rate hike at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand July meeting (coming up on July 24,  NZ time).


15 hours ago | July 9th, 2014 20:18:24 GMT

Japan Machine Tool Orders +34.2% y/y for June (prior was +48.7%)


This is data from late yesterday out of Japan, from the Japan Machine Tool Builders’ Association.

  • Machine tool orders received by Japanese companies in the January-June term came in +35.5% y/y
  • This is the the highest six-month tally since the 2008 Lehman shock
  • In June alone, overall orders increased 34.2% y/y
  • An official from the Association says conditions shjould improve again in the 2nd half of the year with signs of further recovery in Asia.


Like I said, this is a data point from late yesterday. Upon release it didn’t have much impact on the yen, but it all goes into the mix.


16 hours ago | July 9th, 2014 19:29:38 GMT

Congress refuses to cooperate in insider trading case


After years of fighting it, Congress finally submitted to insider trading laws with the STOCK Act in 2012 but not before significantly watering it down. Now, they’re simply refusing to play ball.

A change in Medicare policy in April 2013 was almost assuredly leaked by House Ways and Means Committee staff director Brian Sutter:

Sutter spoke with a lobbyist for law firm Greenberg Traurig just minutes before the lobbyist emailed a brokerage firm with information from “very credible sources” about a change in Medicare policy. The firm then sent out an alert about the upcoming change to clients, including large insurance companies like Humana, and share prices of several immediately jumped.

At the time, Sutter told federal investigators that he did not recall speaking with the lobbyist, but a few days later, a House lawyer said that “time for reflection” may have helped stir Sutter’s memory.

The Committee responded to SEC subpoenas by saying its employees are “absolutely immune” from having to comply.


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