Forex trading headlines from the European morning session 17 Sept
It’s been all about the pound again this morning as traders try and keep their powder dry elsewhere as we wait on US CPI and more importantly the FOMC later
GBPUSD looked supported from the off and we were soon testing good offers at 1.6300-10 before finally breaking higher to post 1.6330 before dipping again only to post 1.6340 after the jobs data then fell again to 1.6288 on softer MPC Minutes.
EURGBP dropped to 0.7933 but since bounced to 0.7960 and it’s been a similar story on pound pairs.
Yen and Swiss pairs have found a bid in a mixed USD bag and this has kept USDJPY and USDCHF perky while EURUSD has also looked supported while finding sellers above 1.2965-70
USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD have been mostly quiet but seen some cross play influence in a session which has had more than one eye on the main event later
- w/e 12 Sept
- 30 year fixed mortgage rate rises to 4.36% from 4.27%
- refinancing index rose 10.3% w/w
- mortgage purchase index increased 4.8% w/w
Stronger housing sector data but no-one bothered with eyes on bigger prize later
EURUSD 1.2955 USDJPY 107.31 GBPUSD 1.6305 AUDUSD 0.9067
Yes folks,lest we forget ( how could we ) we’ve got a vote going on tomorrow and that means more polls into the final hours
Here’s what’s scheduled courtesy of our friends at Livesquawk.com
- Ipsos-Mori poll for STV News out around 18.00 GMT
- YouGov for The Times c. 22.00 GMT
- Panelbase. Release time unknown
- Ipsos -Mori poll for the Evening Standard – early afternoon
We can expect exit polls from the various polling stations from 21.30 GMT
And a welcome breather for yours truly too as
The pound has been the main focus this morning but we’ve seen some opportunity in other pairs with the Yen and Swiss still finding sellers on cross plays keeping USDJPY and USDCHF underpinned
The market’s been happy to buy some USD lately on expectations of a more hawkish stance from the FOMC but we’ve been here before only to find Yellen still in cautious mode
And I expect more of the same this time
Weaker reading in these uncertain times as we wait for SNB tomorrow
EURCHF 1.2108 USDCHF 0.9345
- y/y +0.4% vs -1.1% prev revised up from -2.3%
More reasons to be cheerful but euro still not impressed EURUSD 1.2955
Eurozone construction output mm
- -0.7% prev
- y/y +0.4% vs +0.3% exp/prev
- core CPI +0.9% as exp/prev
Welcome news for the ECB but euro less than impressed
Eurozone CPI yy
- rate of UK growth may ease in Q4
- downside risks to UK growth probably increased
- sees increase in geopolitical risks
- MPC majority see vulnerability to shocks and household debt
- evident increase of volatility over Scottish referendum
- some see spare capacity as a less useful policy guide
- some see wage growth pickin up
- Pound strength continues to put downward pressure on inflation
- Eurozone weakness most significant development this month
Full Minutes here
Overall I’d say it’s a bearish document and the market shares that view with cable now at 1.6295 from 1.6340 highs
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