12 hours ago | October 30th, 2014 00:30:09 GMT

Japan PM Abe: Comments on decision factors on next sales tax hike


Japan PM Abe:

  • Whether Japan can return to growth path in July-Sept quarter will be key on if to proceed with next sales tax hike to 10 pct
  • It’s true sales tax hike weakens consumers’ purchasing power, must scrutinise how it effects prospects for ending deflation


Headlines via Reuters



  • Economic growth is continuing as a whole
  • Want to look at various data for July-September in deciding if to compile extra budget to stimulate economy




12 hours ago | October 30th, 2014 00:03:13 GMT

First NZ Capital says RBNZ is on hold until December 2015


First NZ Capital economist Chris Green:

  • RBNZ will keep the OCR at 3.5% until December 2015
  • Had previously forecast rate rise in September

He cites:

  • RBNZ comments on “modest” domestic inflationary environment
  • Says the tone of statement “was more dovish”


More here:




12 hours ago | October 30th, 2014 00:01:17 GMT

Australia – Housing Industry Association (HIA) New Home Sales for September, 0.0% m/m


Housing Industry Association (HIA) New Home Sales for September, flat at 0.0% m/m

  • prior was +3.3%
  • 11.0% rise in multi-unit sales offset by a 2.3% fall in detached house sales
  • Sales of multi-units (apartments and semi-detached/townhouses) reached a new cyclical peak in September with 11.0% rise in September and 8.7% q/q rise in September quarter

HIA chief economist Harley Dale:

  • “The overall profile for new home sales is consistent with a healthy year for dwelling construction in 2014/15″


13 hours ago | October 29th, 2014 23:52:46 GMT

Japan Buying Foreign Bonds + the rest of this data


International Transactions in Securities data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance,for the week ended October 24:

  • Japan Buying Foreign Bonds, Y 40.6B
  • Japan Buying Foreign Stocks, Y 197.1B
  • Foreign Buying Japan Bonds, Y 49.0B
  • Foreign Buying Japan Stocks, Y 178.0B


13 hours ago | October 29th, 2014 23:37:45 GMT

Merrill Lynch … looking for a Fed hike from June 2015


From Merrill Lynch Research, on the FOMC today and looking ahead (in brief, bolding mine):

  • The hawkish tilt to today’s FOMC means the return of interest rate risk as a major concern for risk assets.
  • The market is …in the process of pulling forward the expected first Fed rate hike toward the middle of next year
  • The global weakness concerns that dominated the first part of October – and re-priced the Fed – are unlikely to derail the strong US growth engine
  • Interest rate risk as US economic data continues to be strong
  • The Fed … made several changes in the statement that were less dovish than some in the markets were anticipating, based on the price action immediately after 2 PM
  • Our base case remains a June start to a very slow hiking cycle, with risks skewed to a later liftoff


13 hours ago | October 29th, 2014 23:06:32 GMT

When will the Fed start raising interest rates?


MNI’s Fed watcher Steve Beckner has posted his take on the FOMC today … FOMC: Ends QE3, Keeps ‘Considerable Time’ for FFR

He takes a look ahead, and asks …

  • The next question plaguing Fed watchers, of course, is: When will the Fed start raising that key overnight money market rate?

In brief (bolding is mine):

  • There is no definite timetable
  • The FOMC qualified the “considerable time” period by adding, “However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee’s employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated.” “Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated,”
  • FOMC acknowledged that labor markets had “improved further” …  dropped reference to “significant underutilization of labor resources”… “underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing.”


Long story, short: The FOMC remains data dependent.


14 hours ago | October 29th, 2014 22:37:34 GMT

Trading levels to watch – AUD and GBP


Mike posted up his thoughts on AUD and GBP a little earlier with some good levels to watch:

Aussie $ under attack as longs run for the hills:

  • Expect some demand down here but short-term rallies to be capped into 0.8810 and then 0.8830-50 again, as longs try and get a second chance to unload (but more at that link, above)

Cable on the slide but heading into fresh buyers:


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