Nikkei opens -0.4%

EUR/JPY is trading towards the lower end of its session range, currently at 113.35. There are three recent hourly lows at 113.20 and heavy stops are rumoured just below there.

AUD rumour hits the mainstream press

Thanks Conrad for the link to the Sydney Morning Herald where they also mention the rumour regarding a big buy order in the AUD. If it’s in the mainstream press, then it’s all been done and dusted already; buy the rumour, sell the fact imho.

UK consumer confidence at low ebb

The latest GfK/NOP consumer confidence reading for the UK is at an 11 month low.

USD/CHF: Looks technically quite bearish

You all know my views on USD/CHF, if it’s looking bearish I ignore it and wait for some buying opportunities. The overnight break below 1.0395 has this pair looking technically quite bearish and sets up at least for a test of 1.0225 I would suggest. I remain small long and will look to add when the time is ripe.

EUR/JPY: Hefty stops below 113.20

If you’re presently long EUR/JPY I’d advise some caution as there are said to be very hefty stop-loss sell orders sitting just below 113.20.

AUD/USD: Favour range trading with mild bullish bias

The two main factors today in the AUD/USD will be risk-aversion and end-of-month transactions. The former could weigh on the AUD in early trade whereas the latter should support as the day progresses.

I’m looking for a .8960/.9060 intraday trading range with a mild bullish bias.

Plaudits to Mr. Gerry

I was speaking with an interbank dealer yesterday evening who was sitting in a dealing room surrounded by all the best information systems, Reuters, Bloomberg etc. He said that ForexLive was giving him the inside scoop on what was happening in the market before all others and in an entertaining way to boot. Alle Achtung Herr Gerry.

USD/JPY: So much for all the option cover

I’m still at odds to know why some big players were buying so much cover in USD/JPY earlier in the week in the form of 88.00 calls. There is usually a very good reason for this type of behaviour and perhaps something will still happen in the next few days.

On the day USD/JPY looks soft and as it’s ‘risk-off’ Friday, buyers of USD and Risk will be few and far between.

ForexLive Asian market open: EUR/USD nears important resistance

Some big flows overnight led to interesting moves with rumours taking care of the rest.

There was some AUD bought for month-end but not nearly as much as some would suggest and there may still be some more to be bought today. The CHF made big gains on rumours that the SNB will hike rates. If you really want to go long CHF against the USD or the EUR at these low levels based on the fact/expectation that the SNB might raise rates by 25 bps in a few months, good luck to you. Sterling didn’t have the momentum to follow the other majors and lost ground on the crosses. EUR/USD stalled just shy of the supposedly big offers starting at 1.3115. Technical resistance is at 1.3140 (38.2% retracement)

Good luck today and TGIF.

ForexLive US wrap-up: EUR hangs onto most of gains

• US weekly jobless claims fall 11,000 to 457,000
• IMF sees China growth at 10.5% this year; CNY undervalued, loan quality questioned
• KC Fed manufacturing index bucks trend, rises to 14 in July from 3 in June
• House committee to hold China FX hearings Sept 15
• Fed’s Bullard raises specter of Japanese-style deflation; more QE would be the RX
• Fed’s Fisher: Growth to be suboptimal; regulatory uncertainty outweighs further easing of monetary policy.
• S&P 500 closes  -0.4% to 1101
• US Treasuries close 1 bp lower at 2.98% in 10-year maturity

EUR/USD opened firm in the US, building on the rally in London this morning. Prices managed to overcome barrier options at 1.3100 but were only able to extend the range as high at 1.3107. Profit-taking ahead of the 38.2% retracement of the drop from 1.5145 helped cap gains as did a very bearish report on EUR/USD from a well-known US hedge fund, FX Concepts, suggesting Europe’s sovereign debt problems are far from over and a major top for the euro is seen some time over the next month.

A sharp reversal in the S&P, from a gain of 1% shortly after the open to a loss of 1% around around midday sparked some risk aversion but EUR/USD managed to hold the bulk of its gains, pulling back only as far as 1.3058. Bids are seen down to 1.3045 near-term while trailing stops start in the 1.3035/40 area. Topside stops reside in the 1.3145/50 area from leveraged players.

FX Concepts is also very bearish on AUD, helping take the steam out of a solid morning rally in that pair. Goldman estimated that as much as AUD 7 bln may have to be purchased for month-end at tomorrow’s fixings. Others see strong demand but not nearly approaching Goldman’s estimate.  0.8977/0.9025 was the NY range.

Solid demand is rumored for CAD tomorrow for month-end as well. 1.3010/1.3090 was the Toronto range.

USD/JPY and UR/JPY were lower with equities in NY trade. Talk of More QE from Fed’s Bullard sent the pair to its lows at 86.57 but it soon recovered to the 87.95/00 area before range-trading int he 86.80s into the close.JPY demand is less robust that that for the commodity currencies and GBP, we’re told.

Cable traded in choppy fashion today, making two attempts to establish its footing above its 50% retracement 1.7045/1.4032 drop at 1.5640 but failed. It closes at 1.5610, up from 1.5580 session lows, where solid demand was seen. Cable demand is seen as strong at tomorrow’s fixings as well, we hear.

CHF was back in focus for a time today, first on rumors that the SNB will hike rates in September as well as on vague rumors of SNB selling of EUR/CHF. The cross slumped from 1.3755 European highs to New York afternoon lows of 1.3580.

US GDP will be the economic focus tomorrow. Economists expect 2.5% growth on an annualized rate in Q2. Traders probably have a slower growth priced in at this point, closer to 2%.